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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: e. boolean who wrote (20710)10/8/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Jan Crawley  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Are you saying the Elephants are short? I still don't understand the mechanics of the conspiracy.

e, let me try:

1. Amzn, via IPO, sold 10 million shares(split adj.) to the public; that's the 10 million seats issued to the 10 million tickets.
2. Before June/98, via shorting, an additional 8.7 million tickets were "printed" and sold to the public(buyers) to occupy the same 10M seats.
3. Therefore, we had 18.7 million ticket holders with only 10 million seats; on June 1, 98, when Amzn was trading at $43.

In addition to the above 1+2+3, we also know(in fact) that as of 3/1/98, institutions owned 11 million tickets out of the 18.7M.

From 3/1/98, to 6/98, six elephants(including MSDW) accumulated another approx. 2 million tickets.

From the above, we know that on 6/1/98, the institutions(including elephants) owned 13 million tickets. We may also assume that the 13 million tickets holders' cost averages are quite low, $20 something. We also know that the 8.7 million short average cannot be over $40! and we all know what happened between 6/1/98 and 9/30/98.

Now, on 10/8/98,

4. we know that, via insiders sale between 7/1/98 to 8/24/98, additional 3 million seats are added and there is a total of 13 million seats.
5. The short interest decreased, from 8.7M to 7.3M
6. The question is, which elephants are shorting the 4 million shares (4+5) ??? and can we guess their short averages??

p.s. When Junglee/Plantell unload their 3 million shares in the next few weeks, those are seats looking for new buyers. During the insiders sale window in Nov., those are new seats too.