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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Graeme Smith who wrote (3453)	10/8/1998 10:51:00 AM
From: Tai Jin	Respond to of 4634

It's still too early to buy. Expect more fallout this month and possibly through the end of the year. I also wouldn't expect stocks to bounce back with much vigor (investors will be more wary and slow to get back in). So that means there is plenty of time to buy value stocks. ...tai

To: Graeme Smith who wrote (3453)	10/8/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4634

Smart investors are always too early. I saw what was coming this fall last fall. As you are probably aware, I started going short last fall and gradually sold my longs as prices got ridiculously high (of course I sold most of them too soon). I also, started shorting too soon and was deeply under water at the July peak. I fortunately maintained my short strategy and yesterday saw black for the first time since early Feb. Today it looks like I will go above water with about 1% up year to date but I am still down about 6% from my peak which I reached in early Feb before the market started its parabolic rise. Why I am telling you this? I am because In my humble opinion the average dummy has just started thinking about sellingand the fundamentals not just look bad, this time they are bad. So I think we may see quite a bit more selling. IMO the best strategy is to wait for things to clear and turn around (not only the prices going up but also the fundamental picture) and then go in gradually you miss some of the upside but the risk is much lower. I think there is a certain element of greed in this business of trying to get in ahead of others. I like Bill but I think he is wrong buying now and even more worng in leaving opne limit orders before an extended absence. I hope he was just tired from packing and just rambling a bit. This idea of waiting for the turn around instead of guessing it I think I first read from Lynch. Wait until the story changes before jumping in.