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To: Stoctrash who wrote (70337)	10/8/1998 11:28:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176387

Yeah that is what they said about Yen a while ago in the 80s when the Japanese was on top of IT,then they said the Euro is going to be the King,bull shit. Well sorry but that is what it is. The 'green back' is here to say and that is the end of the story.

To: Stoctrash who wrote (70337)	10/8/1998 1:13:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 176387

Hi Fred,..Re:Lee I tried to buy the bonds yeasterday but missed (lucky).. were do you see this retrace reversing??? You're asking somebody who has been wrong on bonds for the past 12 months. So I'll offer an opinion but recognize that there's 100% chance it's wrong still. I think for the US economic fundamentals, (including published numbers and LEI which supposedly looks out 6 months or further), long rates should be at 5.25% or above. According to the Sept. 22 commitment of traders report, 74.7% commercials are short and from previous research, the commercials are mostly correct. (If you ask for substantiation of that assertion, it'll take more than a couple of weeks and delving through Schwagers works and Marketplex previous commentary). U.S. TREASURY BONDS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 09/22/98 \| -------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|----------------\|-----------------\|---------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADING\| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (CONTRACTS OF $100,000 FACE VALUE) OPEN INTEREST: 794,647 COMMITMENTS 169,126 63,761 37,902 455,453 593,243 662,481 694,906 132,166 99,741 CHANGES FROM 09/15/98 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -21,131) 10,507 3,795 3,140 -39,927 -35,813 -26,280 -28,878 5,149 7,747 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 21.3 8.0 4.8 57.3 74.7 83.4 87.4 16.6 12.6 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 267) 68 32 24 92 116 174 161 Link for above report = cbot.com Until all the fear is replaced by confidence in domestic growth and good earnings, looks like the treasuries will be the recipient of cash for awhile, (if the dollar holds). (This isn't even counting more funds flows from SE Asia on any hint that Japan isn't moving fast enough). I'm considering buying the dips. Hope that helps, Lee