To: marc chatman who wrote (30496 ) 10/8/1998 12:19:00 PM From: Gameboy Respond to of 95453
IEA news release may explain weakness in oilbiz.yahoo.com Excerpt:Thursday October 8, 4:01 am Eastern Time Oil gains temporary, recovery depends on Asia-IEA LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Oil markets battered by oversupply are unlikely to make lasting gains until ailing Asian economies start to recover, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. Recent gains in oil prices were only temporary and major risks remain to the health of developing countries' economies and therefore to growth in petroleum demand, the West's energy watchdog said in its Monthly Oil Market Report. ''A sustainable rise in oil prices is unlikely to occur until oil demand growth is reestablished in Asia,'' the report said of recent gains that trimmed this year's 30 percent price fall. This is a largely a re-run of their report from a couple of months ago. Last month, however, they reported the supply/demand deficit could run as high as 1.8 million barrels/day in the 4th qtr and they then revised their estimate for June world oil inventories down by 41 million barrels. In July, they estimated OPEC compliance at around 400,000 barrels/day only to have the Energy Intelligence Group report the same figure within a week at around 1,200,000 barrels/day - a figure about 3 times as large. In Houston last month, the executive director of the IEA said he didn't think that OPEC could impose production cuts in a free market - now the IEA says OPEC has a 98% compliance to their production cutback quotas. Because of their acronym it's easy to confuse the IEA with the EIA; I would advise anyone reading the well publicized IEA to consider the source and their history. Best of luck, Steve