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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Franco Battista who wrote (14508)	10/8/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: Doug Fir	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

RE: Panic! "We are in the second phase of the bear market- selling is still orderly. Margins have started to be called and some die-hard bulls are starting to experience fear for the first time. The next phase will be ugly- PANIC SELLING. Wonder what news item will provoke that." I think SI should scan all daily messages for CAPS and "!" usage. Then we could develop an ocillator for market sentiment. Extra weighting awarded for the use of profanity, the words "MY GOD","MY WIFE'S GONNA KILL ME",and "I'M BACKING UP THE TRUCK AT THESE PRICES". Also key words "college fund","short bastards","complain SEC",and my personal favorite, "What's happening?!!" :) Arbor Vitae

To: Franco Battista who wrote (14508)	10/8/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Battista: I wonder if an impeachment vote in the house today will trigger any significant reaction in the markets? I was surprised by the sharp $/yen drop overnight. There must be some other underlying factors for major funds which will emerge short term in the markets from that dislocation. It is early, but I am forming the impression that speculative P/E's (or P/Rev's) are now an anxiety factor for the relatively orderly let down of some of the extremes there. How much % likelihood do you estimate there will be a panic selling market? I think it is possible, but I would give higher likelihood to sectors being affected first by panic selling and possibly limited to that, rather than the general market. There still remains the factor that there is an enormous amount of cash sloshing around in this market, which should be a major cushion. Best regards, m

To: Franco Battista who wrote (14508)	10/8/1998 5:17:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Franco, I have noted there are many folks who think that because there is an overwhelmingly bearish bias that it means the lows have been put in and we will move to new highs. I have even agreed with that sentiment in the past. However, sometimes the herd is correct to stampede. If I were in a building that were burning, I would not want to be a contrarian to the majority who have decided that it would be best to leave the building. On the other hand, a significant rally tomorrow would not surprise me. If I'm not mistaken, Friday rallies have become the norm in this market the way that Friday sell offs were the norm in the bull market. Barb