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To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/8/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Burt - Re: "These things often (though not always) end with a bang. My guess is that there will be a bang." Thanks for the excellent summary. I believe you have captured most of the problems that face us today. Let me add that, unlike in 1987, I expect the malaise at the bottom - after the big Bang - to continue for quite a while as all the world's economies re-adjust to the new realities. It could be really ugly for an extended period of time. Many people who were looking forward to retirement in the near future based on their 401 K PRIOR valuations are going to be in for a SHOCK when they see their CURRENT 401K valuations. They will have to keep working for a long, long time. And the EMPLOYMENT scene will be deteriorating at the same time - with all those hedge fund operators looking for jobs at McDonalds and Round Table Pizza. Paul

To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/8/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: TTOSBT	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: "Bottom line. Looks like a bear. Smells like a bear. Growls like a bear. It's a bear. " I said it before and I'll say it again THEY SHOULD OF NEVER MESSED WITH THE PRESIDENT!!! WHAT IDIOTS THEY COULD NOT WAIT TIL THEIR TURN THEY HAD TO TRY AND CHANGE WHAT HISTORY DICTATES! TTOSBT

To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/8/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: Ibexx	Respond to of 186894

Burt, Of the reasons you cited, only #2 and #3 are the real issues, in particularly #3. To make everyone feel better, look at the following chart: Message 5957327 Ibexx PS: basically, we are paying for the failed hedge funds who dumped quality stocks to cover their rear ends.

To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/8/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: Maxer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Burt-- >>Now item 3 is at least finite. After a while all the hedge funds will get unwound.<< Yes, but-- but-- As I understand it, the 25 largest banks in the US have 3/4 of a TRILLION dollars in hedge funds. They can't cover 20% of that. The funds might be finite, but super devastating monster if liquidated. I worry that this whole disaster is just getting started. Good luck.

To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/8/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: Badger	Respond to of 186894

I've been having this feeling of impending doom for the last week or so. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had a 10-20 percent drop in the next few trading sessions. If it were just one or two of the 'normal' concerns - weak earnings, a troubled industry leader, something like that - then I could brush it off. But so many bad/uncertain things are happening at once I can't help but wonder when all of the waves are going to trough at once and we'll all fall like a ride at Disneyland. I spent two years in Japan, and the other day I spoke to some friends who still live there, both Japanese and expatriot. They tell me that things in Asia are much worse than are generally known. For example, a friend in Tokyo told me that banks are concerned about runs - that is, all depositors coming at once and demanding their savings. Since banks don't keep that much currency on hand, if they run out you get a panic like we had here back in 1929. This isn't Malaysia or China or some other third-world developing economy. This is an established global economic leader who is wobbling - badly. All it will take now is a single, small event to throw things into months of chaos. Maybe the US and world economists can throw some preventive medicine into the mix before things get too out-of-control, but historically such action has been too little, too late. Even if our Congress wasn't fixated on a single issue and our president wasn't politically castrated, I'm not sure we could save the rest of the world. The US is in too good a shape right now to suffer too badly, I think, but we'll have all we can do to save ourselves. Is this alarmist doom and gloom? Possibly. Hopefully. Gut reactions are notoriously undependable, especially with a gut like mine<g>. Still, the feeling lingers and nothing I've seen so far has made me shake it. Badger

To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/8/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Burt, re: meltdown Things are seldom as bad as they appear or as good as good as they appear. I wouldn't recommend it to anyone else, but I did a little buying today. John

To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/9/1998 4:17:00 AM
From: nihil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

RE: Looks like a bear Smells like a very sick bear to me, about dug out. It could go farther down, but I think it ought to be taken out and shot!

To: Burt Masnick who wrote (66059)	10/9/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

It's true that markets predict more recessions than actually happen. OTOH, recessions are always anticipated by the stock market, and this is a far better record than economists who are as a group are almost always wrong about recessions. In any case, by the time the recession officially announced (after 2 quarters of declining GNP) the bear market is over. Therefore it is the worry about a possible recession in the near future that is one of the causative factors in a bear market. We are in a bear, and price wise it is more than half over.