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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Foad who wrote (17928)	10/9/1998 1:50:00 AM
From: Clint E.	Respond to of 69744

Hi Foad. Yes, I still follow SAVLY. A few reasons that may explain why it is back to its IPO price: 1. Fear of slowdown in the telecom biz, especially in Europe. NT & ALA both warned. 2. Fear of slowdown in the wireless industry, an area that SAVLY is trying to penetrate and compete against others such as LHSG. Dropped in reaction to NOKA & ERICY(customer of SAVLY) today. 3. Competition from smaller billing software companies. 4. Gross margins. Can they recoup the high cost of R&D, sales, and training for newly developed products? Customer billing has been a fragmented industry and is expected to grow by 30% next year. To expand market share, there is a push by many (SAVLY, BILL, Kenan..) to provide quick-to-install, cheaper solutions for wireless service providers and smaller CLECs. Therefore, instead of selling big-ticket software packages at >$5M/system to T, GTE, or major Regional Bells, SAVLY had to develop a low-cost solution that can be installed and operational in a few months. They did that. They recently introduced CBP Quickstart that costs ~$2M/system and supports 50K subscribers. Now, they have to sell it as new players are offering cheaper solutions with less features but at more attractive pricing: $300K/system/100K subscribers. The other hot area that they are working on is web-based billing which means that they would consolidate all your billing statements(Landline, Wireless, Internet access) onto one bill and post it on the net for you to check. Cool stuff. My outlook? The mentioned reasons as well as general market worries will weigh on SAVLY as well as many other beaten-down tech stocks for quite sometime. I don't expect it to move much higher in the near term until earnings is out. Even then, I wouldn't bet on a good rally in the stock. If you are not in it, don't get in it. Use your cash to get into companies like csco, msft, lu, nt, dell,..on any weakness. If you are in it, then it is up to you to decide what to do. >>>On the non-tech side I also need advice on CD and CNC. No opinion. In general stay away from any company with questionable accounting practices. A recent victim has been BVSN. Take care; Clint