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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (25112)	10/8/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Elementary my dear Gottfried, <G> The institutions and majority of investors will have taken all their profits out of the market before year end or before they have huge/major losses, thus hastening the arrival at the "bottom" for most stocks. Fear and capitulation will have run their course by then, IMO. The good news is, that once investors/institutions realize that markets are at their bottom, I'm projecting that the potential for progressive improved earnings outlook will start rallying the markets and stocks sometime in the early spring around April/May, causing a significant rally going into summer/fall next year. Companies will have cut back to the bone on extraneous expenses and will be very lean and mean (and competitive). Just my opinion, you heard it here 1st! BB

To: Gottfried who wrote (25112)	10/9/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 70976

<<Blake and Big Bucks: Blake - I didn't know you were here till now. You too can post, even if only the occasional link to a story. :)>> OK, Gottfried, you lured me out of my hole. I'm unwinding myself from my 8 year old "startup" this month, hopefully will be able to contibute more. Just don't say I didn't warn the thread about my relative ignorance; you can always remind me if I'm wasting the thread's time... <VBG>. Here's one for starters: witsa.org Looks to me like this "data" suggests the equip turnaround will be sooner than later. Some excerpts: The first major study of global information technology spending and economic impact documents an industry valued at almost $2 trillion and growing at a rate substantially faster than worldwide gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, the results suggest that national GDP grows when Information and Communication Technology (ICT) spending increases and that even in the face of worsening economic conditions, the effect on ICT spending is muted.... ...Country by country comparisons showed: The U.S. spent $643 billion on ICT in 1997, twice as much as Japan at $317 billion. Together, the U.S. and Japan represent over 53 percent of the world marketplace. Other "top five spenders" are Germany, the United Kingdom and France. Countries spending least on information technology are Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Vietnam. Brazil is the leading IC spender in South America with $34 billion in 1997. In Europe, Germany spends marginally more than the United Kingdom and France ($119 billion versus $102 billion and $91 billion respectively), but twice as much as Italy ($50 billion) and five times as much as Spain ($23 billion). The top five IT spenders in Asia-Pacific are Japan, Australia, the People's Republic of China, Korea and Taiwan. In the last five years, Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) has been the fastest growing ICT market, moving at a compound rate of over 14.5 percent. Despite the current uncertainty, ICT spending in most of the region is expected to rebound as the crisis abates. Latin America followed just behind at almost 13.6 percent. At under five percent, Western Europe was the slowest growing market at 3.5 percent as a result of the appreciation of the dollar and local currency fluctuations in addition to a period of sluggish economic growth in Western Europe. PC installations in the home and education markets grew almost 80 percent in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan)-over twice as fast as Latin America, the next closest region and three times as fast as North America. Vietnam, PRC, Columbia, Brazil and Hong Kong were the five fastest growing IT markets in the world. Although Vietnam is ranked 47 on the list of 50 IT spending markets, the compound rate of spending on ICT jumped 44 percent between 1992 and 1997. PRC, ranked in the top ten ICT markets, grew at a rate of 28.5 percent. Over half the countries included in the survey have increased their representation on the World Wide Web by over 100 percent per annum between 1992 and 1997. The U.S. pays the world's largest telephone bill. With outlays of $220 billion last year for telecommunications products and services, the U.S. outspent Japan-number two on the list-by $68 billion. The U.S. and Japan constitute almost half of global spending on telecommunications. Other big spenders are Germany at $47 billion, the United Kingdom at $36 billion and France at $31 billion. At 15.3 million, the U.S. has the largest number of Internet hosts, 15 times more than its closest rivals, Japan and Germany. Other countries in the top five for the number of Internet hosts are the United Kingdom and Canada. Least friendly Internet countries--Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Venezuela and Philippines--are the least well represented on the Internet in terms of the number of Internet hosts in the country. Internal spending on IT also shows the U.S. ahead, although the amount of these outlays has dropped gradually over the years from $105 billion in 1992 to $99 billion last year. Other top spenders in this category in 1997 are Japan ($63 billion), Germany ($26 billion), France ($24 billion) and the United Kingdom ($22 billion). Also of interest in the new study: Russia spends less on telecommunications ($3.2 billion) than far smaller countries like Portugal ($3.4 billion) and Greece ($3.7 billion). Russia spends less on information technology ($8.5 billion) than Taiwan ($12.1 billion) and Hong Kong ($12.0 billion). While most countries experience incremental gains, telecom spending by the PRC has exploded over four-fold between 1992 and 1997, from $4.3 billion to $18.8 billion. China spent almost six times as much on telecommunications in 1997 as Russia. Singapore is the world leader in telephone lines per household. Singapore has 1.25 lines per household, followed by Taiwan with 1.2 lines, Korea (1.17 lines), Israel (1.15 lines) and Sweden (1.15 lines). Cheers, BP