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Technology Stocks : CheckFree (CKFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Benny Baga who wrote (7983)10/8/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: kolo55  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8545
 
Wow, this stock looks cheap here.

Its been a while since I posted on this thread, but a number of the first 100 posts or so on the thread are mine. I sold early last summer, and have been out of the stock since.

The price action is certainly intriguing. My guess is one of these things are happening:

1. There is some indication that the competition is heating up, and that scared out some long term holders (I don't believe this. If it was true, we would be seeing a lot of downgrades. Aren't most of the analysts still rating CKFR as a Buy?)

2. With the general market decline, investment pros are having to focus on stocks that can be supported based on fundamental analysis. Unfortunately, CKFR still doesn't have a record of earnings, and the timing of the loss this quarter is bad, coinciding with the market downturn. Investment managers who have been supporting CKFR, may have had to stop buying the stock. Other investment managers have been selling Internet stocks this last week, and may have held some CKFR as part of a basket of stocks. When they sell the basket, out goes the CKFR. Finally, the downturn has put the margin squeeze on many.

3. Someone knows about the upcoming earnings release, and expects CKFR to post a bigger loss, and possibly even a significant revenue decline, for the SepQ. (I hope this is not the case. Does anyone know?)

I lean strongly toward the second reason above. Does anyone have an opinion? Can we expect a rebound of sorts after the earnings release and conference call? This stock sure looks cheap at only about 1.7 times annual revenues.

TIA... Paul