Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : New Holland and the Ag Equipment Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (23)	10/9/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 113

I've been looking at heavy equipment cyclicals going back a few decades. Looks like NH and CSE, etc are announcing 20% profit reductions in a seemingly horrible year, which ain't bad, and the street is absolutely murdering the stocks for it. It's probably because looking at the history you typically see an earnings peak, then a small profit reduction then a bottoming out over the next year or two prior to a recovery. The bottoming can often include losses. So looks like the Street is calling this the beginning of a 2-4 year down cycle, and apparently they are expecting losses. Even so, I see the companies making the right moves financially and with the labor, even if I don't know how deep or long the down cycle will be. And even if I know that NH will lose money two years out, I'm still happy buying gobs of it below 10. Now if CSE would just get below 10, I'd sell my computer and car to put money into it. Mike