To: James A. Venooker who wrote (55605 ) 10/8/1998 11:23:00 PM From: gbh Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
however most of your statements have not changed in over a year. Not sure who you've been reading, but my market stance has pretty much reversed 180 degrees in the last month. Not that this is a good thing (that I have waffled), but your statement if just plain inaccurate.Yes the Dow is at 7700 but the Nasdaq (the big board of the future) is suffocating near 1300! If I were to translate this number into Dow points, the Dow would be in and around 5000! If the Dow being at 7700 is a sign to you we have further falling to go, then how much further must the Nasdaq go? Its illogical. Actually, the index I watch most closely in the NAZ100, as most of my stocks are in this index. But the fact is that the DOW and its stocks have not been raked over the coals like the NAZ, and I still believe it will. You can choose to believe that if the DOW drops another 1000 points, the NAZ won't fall any more, but this just isn't logical. Most others will be dragged down further. Some won't, but most will. That just seems logical to me. I don't believe Dell, MSFT or IBM have to be punished before we see a rebound, all three of the stocks have had significant downturns. Wall Street loves Michael Dell, Lou Gerstner, and well, no one really gives a sh-t about Gates. Well, first off, Wall Street loves no one more than Bill Gates, IMO. Now, why must DELL, MSFT and IBM be punished? Well, they don't have to. But in the process of revalueing the market in general, all companies are moving toward being re-priced at there true growth rates. At these prices, risk is deemed more acceptable by the funds that are buying them. And right now EVERYONE is tending toward being rsik averse. Company's with no growth or negative earnings are being butchered. Stocks with great growth, but PE's at least twice that growth rate, like MSFT, DELL and CSCO are being naturally brought back in. IBM is a little different. Their PE is reasonable by traditional standards, but their growth is actually pretty anemic. BTW, these will be the first stocks back provided they don't make a misstep and surprise the street to the downside. Michael Dell sure gave his company a boost today, but they will come in, just like the rest. These guys and the internets are just the last to go. And I also believe that the recent highs of these companies won't be reached for at least a year, maybe more. I believe the hedge fund situation is overstated and overrated. Perhaps, but perception is very important. And the banks and brokerage stocks (which I entered a little too early), sure don't think the situation is overstated. Check out CCI's statement today about this quarters earnings. Brutal. And they are far from alone. This is real, IMO.Lastly, who cares what in the world Japan/Asia is doing? These country's have been going to hell in a hat bag for a long time, let them crash and burn for all I care, all those country's ever did was pound their exports, and "dime a day" labor products down our throat, maybe it is time for a little payback. I would guess that may sound like a really racist statement, but can you prove me wrong? Well, how can you possibly ignore the situation there, when virtually every company that comes up short on earnings is blaming the Asian crisis. Whether you realize it or not, the Far East represents enormous future growth for all our favorite tech companies. Gary