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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (4614)	10/8/1998 11:41:00 PM
From: D. Newberry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

x y, <<One good thing for Lucent that could be a big positive, is the possibility that the Yen may be starting an up trend vs the Dollar.>> I enjoyed your thoughtful post, and I agree that a weaker dollar will help companies like Lucent sell overseas. However, will that be a good deal for us investors? As you mentioned, a weaker dollar (which by the way is magnified as Greenspan continues to lower interest rates) will also create an outflow of funds from the U.S., which will likely put pressure on the stock market, including Lucent stock. So while Lucent profits from a more competitive position overseas, there is less $$ here to bid up Lucent stock. As I understand it, a falling dollar was part of the equation that contributed to the '29 and '87 crashes as well. Other factors, such as rising interest rates, are thankfully absent this time around. Any thoughts? Long on Lucent and holding. Darrell

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (4614)	10/8/1998 11:52:00 PM
From: PAL	Respond to of 21876

Richard McGinn will be on Squawk Box/CNBC tomorrow at 8:00 am EDT 8:00am Squawk Box Joe Battipaglia Gruntal Richard McGinn Lucent Technologies CEO Eckhard Pfeiffer Compaq Computer CEO Dr. Thomas F. Frist Jr. Columbia/HCA Chairman & CEO Philip Condit Boeing CEO Glen Hiner Owens Corning Chairman & CEO James Johnson Fannie Mae Chairman & CEO Kenneth Derr Chevron Chairman & CEO David Goode Norfolk Southern Chairman & CEO Douglas Yearley Phelps Dodge Chairman & CEO Kenneth Lay Enron Chairman & CEO

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (4614)	10/9/1998 12:37:00 AM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 21876

Z --- Many of the points you brought up are well taken We all knew (or should have known) the Japanese have been looking for a long time to take their money home. They had tons in our economy. Now that they have reason to believe things are going to get better at home that is where there cash will go... which means selling out of issues they have held in the US for years with great gains... Al they made will now be taken home and put to work -- in their eyes it is patriotic as they take the rewards home too which will all help their economy. The Chinese are another matter. They stated they would not devalue... as a people they will not lose face. They stand behind their word no matter the cost. The chances of them retreating from that statement made many times is/was about MINUS 3 on a scale of 1 to 10. We are now in a global economy and dependant on others... the Japaese assisted in the run up of our mkts and when they withdrew they helped it drop which started a minor run here. Believe it,,, it was/is minor compared to where the mkt could have been. The resistance is around 7400 on the dow but 6750 was really possible. During the 60s I was in contact with the Turkish military --- I am not familiar with any tech wepons in the region but if a conventional war would start,,, just erase Syria. When things got bad I liked having the Turks or Aussies around. It will take more than another 1/4 point. The first thing is for all holders to realize it had to happen and they should have been looking for it and only got caught a little. Second,, not much has changed fundamentally. The EPS we are used to may not show up for a year,, but most underlying factors are still there and prices have dropped so P/Es look a bit more sane. Also, it is not over. There are a lot of new lower bases at this time. There will be profit taking and there still may be some downside. Most of the cap that was going to run has left, both forgien and domestic... can we support our mkt with less cash from overseas,, sure as some will come back and currency values make some of our products a bigger bargain now than 2 months ago... Look for more volatility and more rate drops. IMO 1/4 in the next 3 sessions, another in Nov, and AG will try to hold a bit longer after that. There will be more than the .75 in the next 6 months --- Mortgages that were recently made at 6 7/8 - 7 1/2 will be changed to 6 - 6 1/4. The only high credit will be plastic... Unemployment will still rise to the 5 - 5 1/4 range which will also make AG a little happier. The budget surplus will take a 1 year hit as the polititions agree to spend just not on what --- now they will band to give the economy a little kick --- Sure as hell not blue skys but a ray of hope in stormy water.. ND that 50% in the black will not see red --- a S/L is in place :-) John