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To: James A. Venooker who wrote (55620)10/9/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: gbh  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 61433
 
Like most out there, I think rates will fall another .75 to 1.00 before the end of this year. Will probably come in two installments. IMO, it will be more effective if the next is .50



To: James A. Venooker who wrote (55620)10/9/1998 9:56:00 AM
From: ibrandybuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
<"What is the chances Big Al steps in, calls an emergency meeting and cuts rates 50 basis points? Someone has to put a cork in the leaking bucket.">

Zero! That would confirm the sense of panic. He will lower interests another 1/4 (outside chance of 1/2) in November, IMHO.

Mr. Greenspan is not terribly concerned about stock prices, except to the extent that irrational selling undermines consumer confidence. He cared more about the dangerous "speculative bubble", that (hopefully), we've successfully deflated now. He is concerned about credit squeeze and the relationship of equity prices to such a squeeze.

I'd guess that he does not feel particularly alarmed about current stock valuations. He might be a bit concerned if the spiral continues. But there are signs that we'll stabilize and trade in a reasonable range through the end of the year.