Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Magnatizer who wrote (21939)	10/9/1998 3:10:00 AM
From: Doug R	Respond to of 79242

David, Watch the short term treasury note funds from here. I overweighted to the tune of 40% into that arena at the close of Sept. 30 in anticipation of the topping out of the short squeeze component of the rally in long bonds. The recent inverted condition of the yield curve is beginning to correct. It generally takes 3 or more months of an inversion of the yield curve for reasonable accuracy in forecasting a recession. The sharp reversal of the dollar and the long bond in the last few days, coupled with a breakout in short term notes is the beginning of the end for inversion. It looks like we'll narrowly avert recession. I'm looking for another 1/4% drop in the fed funds rate before the next fed meeting in Nov. and another 1/4% drop coming out of that meeting. The discount rate will probably see some downward adjustment as well. Aggressive dollar buying by the fed during all this is also very likely. Greenspan actually loves this sh*t. He's ready to rock'n'roll...IMO. Also, in regard to the price trend intersection on the dow this week, there was huge volume and volatility with little actual price movement during the 3 days that the intersection most influences(remember, this is just the DJIA I'm watching here). The dollar has dropped significantly, prompting a lot of selling by foreign investors but that damn stubborn magnet line of 7724 is still holding. Abbey J. Cohen started sounding like Clinton (lowering S&P earnings estimates while remaining bullish...???) and the broader avgs. kept slipping. The magnet trend intersection at about 7600 rolls around on 10/16 so the bull/bear battle should continue to be waged at least until then. Crunch time continues. Doug R