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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (4597)	10/9/1998 7:43:00 AM
From: Ron Kory	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Paul and others: There were worse selloffs this century than 1987: 1929 and 1974 are two examples and they each had their own reasons. 1987 also had good reasons to selloff albeit it was exacerbated by portfolio insurance. It is interesting that this board is even having a discussion on the bear market. Possibly this is a bullish thing. On this score it is interesting to note Newsweek's bear market cover ("The Crash of '99") this week, Esquire's cover ("What did you do in the crash, Daddy?"), the front page coverage given to the market's turbulence in the nation's newspapers, the lead in the national television news reports etc. The bad news is now completely ingrained in the nation's psyche. The average Nasdaq stock is down well over 50% from its highs and average NYSE stock is down 40%. The Russel index of small cap stocks is down 37% with a 17% decline just since September 29. During 1987 the Russell declined 39% from its extreme high to extreme low. My point here is that we are well into the bear market and may be closer to the end than many think--at least we may finally achieve a point of equillibrium where buyers can match sellers and the market can become more stable. Obviously the market can go down more. In 1974 the average stock declined 70% from its highs which would indicate much more to go. One could argue that there is vicious tax loss selling going on because as long time blue chip winners are sold losers are sold to offset taxable gains. Selling into a vaccuum is making most smaller stocks crater. In my mind this is creating the conditions for small cap outperformance whenever the market does regain its footing (easier for the stock that went from 15 to 5 to bounce back to 10 as opposed to Hershey Food to go from 74 to 150). In every bear market there are winners and bear markets frequently alter the next leadership groups for the next bull market. Perhaps JBL and SLR's recent outperformance are paving the way for their leadership. No doubt JBL can go lower but this significant outperformance and outright appreciation is telling a tale that should be respected. ron