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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert duke who wrote (11403)10/9/1998 8:14:00 AM
From: surfinSteve  Respond to of 13594
 
See news at:
cbs.marketwatch.com

When America Online announced that NetGrocer was paying it a guaranteed $15 million over three years to be the online service's exclusive grocery retailer, AOL investors cheered, bidding up the market valuation of the popular Internet access provider by more than $400 million.

Only one problem: NetGrocer, which, because of high shipping costs, loses more money every time it gets an order, will never be able to afford to pay the bill (never mind the millions it will owe Yahoo! [YHOO], Excite [XCIT] and iVillage under similar deals) unless it finds a way to raise some serious dough.


CME Globex Futures
8:05:03 AM S&P 500   DEC98   977.50   +820, NSDQ100   DEC98  1161.00B  +2000
8:00:59 AM S&P 500   DEC98   977.00   +770, NSDQ100   DEC98  1161.00B  +2000
7:54:58 AM S&P 500   DEC98   976.50   +720, NSDQ100   DEC98  1161.00B  +2000

NIKKEI 225 INDEX (IND:^N225)  Cls 13026.06, Opn 12923.45, 52Wk 12910.27 - 17352.95
 2:03AM  12879.97, Chg -146.09 (-1.12%), Rng 12787.90 - 13301.53

HANG SENG INDEX  (HKG:^HSI)  Cls 7939.51, Opn 8026.17, YTD 6544.79 - 11926.16
 4:00AM  8506.79, Chg +567.28 (+7.15%), Rng 8026.17 - 8527.01

SSE COMPOSITE    (SHS:^SSEC)  Cls 1228.710, Opn 1231.942, 52Wk 1043.022 - 1422.979
 3:00AM  1236.932, Chg +8.222 (+0.67%), Rng 1229.846 - 1241.050

TAIWAN WEIGHTED  (TAI:^TWII)  Cls 6970.23, Opn 6990.06, YTD 6219.89 - 9378.52
 12:03AM  6944.17, Chg -26.06 (-0.37%), Rng 6893.75 - 7064.83

DT. AKTIEN INDEX (FRA:^GDAX)  Cls 3896.08, Opn 3985.02, YTD 3833.71 - 6217.83
 8:09AM  3996.75, Chg +100.67 (+2.58%), Rng 3911.40 - 4011.03
 8:08AM  3996.75, Chg +100.67 (+2.58%), Rng 3911.40 - 4011.03
 8:08AM  3996.18, Chg +100.10 (+2.57%), Rng 3911.40 - 4011.03

SWISS MARKET IND (ZRH:^SSMI)  Cls 5293.7, Opn 5386.0, YTD 5108.3 - 8489.0
 8:09AM  5466.4, Chg +172.7 (+3.26%), Rng 5307.0 - 5472.4
 8:08AM  5461.1, Chg +167.4 (+3.16%), Rng 5307.0 - 5472.4
 8:08AM  5460.9, Chg +167.2 (+3.16%), Rng 5307.0 - 5472.4

MOS TIMES INDEX  (   :^MTMS)  Cls 191.54, Opn 194.58, YTD 172.53 - 843.05
 5:28AM  194.58, Chg +3.04 (+1.59%), Rng 194.58 - 194.58

CAC 40 INDEX     (PAR:^FCHI)  Cls 2959.97, Opn 3020.97, YTD 2809.73 - 4404.94
 8:08AM  3086.90, Chg +126.93 (+4.29%), Rng 3040.55 - 3086.90
 8:08AM  3084.83, Chg +124.86 (+4.22%), Rng 3040.55 - 3084.83
 8:07AM  3083.61, Chg +123.64 (+4.18%), Rng 3040.55 - 3084.65

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To: robert duke who wrote (11403)10/9/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Grant  Respond to of 13594
 
Robert

Wish I knew. This could easily see 70's or 60's on a big drop in the DOW. Best advice is to sell into any rally and wait for DOW 7000 or lower to buy back into any stock.

Grant



To: robert duke who wrote (11403)10/9/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13594
 
Robert,
How far down is down? As I said a while back on this thread only half kidding, it's possible to read AOL's chart as a large head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at about $80. Though I'm not a great believer in TA, I try to understand it because other people frequently make their buy-sell decisions based on their charts, especially with stocks like AOL that are way ahead of their valuation on fundamentals. The implication of a head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at $80 is support initially around $80 but freefall to perhaps $60 if it drops though $80 (with some support in the mid-70s).

On the other hand (and this is more in line with my own opinion), AOL is trading two standard deviations below its 20-day moving average and has another 2:1 stock split in the wind (see SEC filings). My guess is that it sees 120 again, maybe higher, before it sees 60.
Best,
--Steve



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