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To: waldo who wrote (21258)	10/9/1998 2:12:00 PM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 116760

I think the art of trading in non fundamental securities that depend on nebulous factors that traditionally no one can foresee the effect of in time, is to impart enough velocity to the coin so that that the choices are truly random. You must also set your choices up so that they really represent opposing market forces. I think their (LTCM) coin flip was rather desultory and allowed operator artifact and wish fullfillment to creep in. They also did not select opposing market positions for alternate choices by the blindfold dart board method or the chimpanzee-with-the-chalk favoured by Merril Lynch. This was another fatal mistake. The random selection of opposing choices guarantees that there will be no straw man bias. The other factor is when you are the only one in the market with that big a share you end up having to bet against everyone else. Enough seeking of opposing bets and you get ganged up on by the whole market. In addition your exhaustion of entire sectors of a market position causes a natural force of reversal in trend as nature abhors a vacuum. If they had just stuck to just buying low cap stocks in huge volume and then selling into the resultant rising market they could have made a huge amount of money. They would have had to only employ about 50 professional rumour spreaders to increase the difference between the rising market and the falling one when they began to sell. "Suckers spring eternal into the inhuman breach" Voltaire. EC<:-}