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Pastimes : Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX): contrarian investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StaggerLee who wrote (387)	10/9/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793

I believe I explained that "long term" in the context of a bear market is pretty short term for the market as a whole. To avoid confusing you: I see BEARX as a hedge against a declining market and I don't plan to hold it for more than a few months or possibly a year, though if there's a big bounce I might reinvest in it.It is a wasting asset. As HB said, the manager intends to go long when that seems best, but I would prefer to make that decision myself. If one believes that July, 1998, was the peak of a great speculative top of a bull market, one can anticipate that those who bought in then--like those who were buying in 1928-29 or 1969 or 1972, will not see a profit on their "investment" for ten and possibly twenty years. Meantime, BEARX is doing exactly what it was designed to do, and is up something like 40% since last July, and even up nicely for the year. Back in June and July when people were dumping BEARX in despair, I did suggest that anyone who really wants to play it safe should simply stay in cash until stocks subside to reasonable evaluations. In fact, as I mentioned yesterday, I sold 10% of my BEARX as of yesterday's close. Sold, not bought. With a 35% profit on that much, it seemed prudent to pull some money off the table.