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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (4599)	10/9/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: kolo55	Respond to of 6317

Oh, one more thing about Cramer. For quite a while now he has been espousing to be in the large cap tech stocks like Dell and MSFT and etc. I personally believe this is where the market has its greatest risks. I am very pleased to see stocks like Yahoo, Dell, and Amazon get hammered, and stocks like Cisco, MSFT, and Intel correct significantly. Add to this the correction in the financial stocks and overpriced consumer stocks like KO and G. This is removing a lot of market risk. These stocks had clearly outrun their fundamentals. I am happy to see the decline in the new "Nifties". Of course some of these are (or will be) Jabil customers, but their stock valuations were too high. Better for JBL investors that they should come down, so we don't have that Sword hanging over our heads in the future. Imagine if Jabil was in the high 40s, and Cisco drops 40% in a week like it did. Our stock would go down in sympathy. I find the decline in the Nasdaq 100 a blessing. This index is dominated by the big high techs. If Cramer was in these big caps, best for him that he be out of the market for the next three months. Its the smaller caps that have been decimated earlier this year, and its a relief to see the big caps finally suffer the big correction they needed. Only when they have been brought down to reasonable levels, can JBL soar. We can get nice appreciation out of JBL, but we won't see the stock fully valued until these stocks have suffered through their corrections. It is interesting that I find the current valuation lows for CSCO, COMS, QNTM, HP etc as reasonable. These players may be finally building bottoms. My forecast: the Nasdaq 100 will decline a bit more (say 5-10%), but then begin to build a bottom through the end of the year. JBL will show good relative strength, maybe rising 10-15% going into the December earnings report. Then JBL will begin the long climb up to a level 50-100% higher within 6-12 months. If everything goes right, it is possible this stock could go much higher. Paul