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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (5125)	10/9/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: peter michaelson	Respond to of 78567

Jeffrey: I've been thinking about insurance company shorts, given the extreme moves in securities prices. Have you got some ideas in this regard? I once was involved in the purchase of a P&C company, and understand some of the accounting. The beauty is that the results can be disguised to the casual observer for ages. (no mark to market of assets and actuarial discretion, for example) An astute, hard-working analyst can uncover value, or lack thereof, through study. Of course, I'm much too lazy these day, which is why I ask you. peter

To: jeffbas who wrote (5125)	10/9/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78567

Jeffrey B. (and Ron B) Yep, seems like my life story. "Only partly right" Senior. And sometimes it's on the least important stuff -g-. So I am not happy with my steel investments and my airline stocks. Steel stocks are getting hurt from Asia/Latin America. Or so some reports are saying. At some point, as I wear my value hat, there's a good price point for every stock, risky as it could be. I think around this level for steel. That's just IMO of course. But as regards airline stocks, we are talking here about companies - maybe way overleveraged, maybe not -- but companies that provide a service that people want and are willing to pay for --- and since you guys probably travel too, you will understand when I say also, a service that people are willing to endure (-g-). Maybe somebody will go bankrupt in a recession, but I bet it won't be UAL, AMR, BAB, KLM, etc. Again, there's a price/value point where it's worth a bet by the value investor. And again, that's IMO. Jeffrey, you remind me of the guy who works in the sausage factory and sees what really goes on, and so has enough knowledge to know he doesn't ever want to eat sausages. Maybe these banks and insurance companies really are built on sand (not saying you have said that) or are really very risky to the unsuspecting, but again, if the industry or companies can manage to convince people they will overcome any issues they face (or hide the real issues from the public), at some point, for me, there is an investment opportunity. On the other hand -g-, I've not sold any of my bank or insurance stocks, they've all been heading lower, so perhaps you are right if you are implying the chickens are coming home to roost. But my bet here too is that bank/insurance stocks will be higher next year. (maybe -g-).