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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim S who wrote (8317)	10/9/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Brinker's interest in tech analysis terminology seems to be inversely proportional to his confidence in his predictions. That is, the more shakey his confidence, the more he relies on whatever might bolster his stated prediction. You are right. I expect to hear him tomorrow on the radio, waxing eloquent about how we "bounced" off the "benchmark lows", without so much as a reference to today's volume (which looks anemic when compared to yesterday's monumental deluge). Nor do I expect him to say anything about the oodles of "new lows" everyday (@ one or two "new lows" every minute). Dipy.

To: Jim S who wrote (8317)	10/9/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: JF Quinnelly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

You may know that Martin Armstrong at Princeton Economics had predicted the market top would come on July 20th. An impressive call; I heard him discussing this prediction last January, apparently his cycle model had selected this day some years ago. He is extremely pessimistic in his latest report because of the chaos going on in the foreign exchange markets; this is where hedge funds like LTCM were making huge bets, and have had them blow up in their faces as currencies moved against them. Armstrong expects a sharp drop in the S&P 500 futures before the month ends, to 899-903, and perhaps 844. pei-intl.com Our concern for the overall picture here is that virtually every investment known to man is moving in a direction to cause the maximum amount of damage within the world economy. The consequence of a strong yen will now push Japan over the edge worsening the economy depression as further asset deflation takes hold..... These recent events will undoubtedly cause a few more dead bodies to fall out of the closets. Exactly who and when is difficult to say. Nonetheless, there is a high probability that liquidity will not return soon and that the natural economic conditions will eventually determine the fate of all nations. The failure of the IMF has set the stage for this global economic disaster. The failure of the G7 to come to some cohesive strategy over the weekend has led capital to throw in the towel this week. The US must STOP trying to resurrect the IMF.... We must give up on the idea of the IMF—it won't work anymore! The Euro must be postponed before a second shock wave takes hold next year. Japan must now deal with the issue of its banking crisis and use public funds, through monetization, to begin a workout of the bad loans. The Fed must stand pat and resist lowering interest TOO FAST or it may accelerate the liquidation process and further complicate the delicate international capital investment flows. Unfortunately, the ripple effects of all these events have yet to fully impact the world at large. That, however, is only a matter of time and in today's atmosphere this could be only a matter of a few weeks.