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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor who wrote (31027)	10/9/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

RE: Hi Brad. I'm not sure I followed what you said. If you see a slow leak but steady inflows then I can surmise that financial equities will tread water on a relative basis No, because once jobs are lost how do people pay bills? We have already seen how Mutual Funds can have outflows. Not that long ago people thought that couldn't happen. The public was too indifferent. I am saying that the next wave (If one wants to call it that) will be one driven by fundamentals and not just speculative fear--as the Princeton study suggested. Presently, people freaked out because their unstoppable market dropped. You might call it a technical bear. Next, the fallout will be lower earnings, layoffs, and a sudden stop of the flow of fuel that kept the market motoring forward all along. A fundamental bear. I know GZ expects an upcrash. However, now I think we have a more or less definable downtrend that will be obvious to everybody if it gets broken to the upside. Unless this whole mess of problems is just a bunch of imagined hype--and I don't think it is--then we really are in for a long bear market, short strong rallys not withstanding. BWDIK B.