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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patroller who wrote (4601)	10/10/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6317

don't know about 11000 by March. But we could get a rebound of 20-25% off the lows that would take us back above 9000 by then. I only think the chances of that are about 30-40% though. The Dow stocks needed a serious correction. Its the small caps that should see the real rebound. For the first time in five years or so, the table is really set for the small caps to outperform. Especially small cap predictable growth stocks like Jabil. Their valuations are very low compared to historical levels based on PEs versus current interest rates. Think about it. We know there is a ton of money sitting on the sidelines, and we know interest rates have dropped world-wide to the lowest levels in years. Yet at the same time we have some of the lowest PEs in years for small caps, especially companies that should see higher growth rates than the market in general. Something clearly is out of whack. Either the earnings will decline driving PEs back up toward historical norms, or growth rates for these companies will slow down significantly. In short, the market has discounted a serious recession into the prices of these small caps. But with so much room for the US to lower interest rates or ease our currently tight fiscal policies, I think we should only get a mild recession, if we get one at all. I think we have less than a 20% chance of any recession next year. In the case of Jabil, we have a company that has excellent forward growth visibility for the next year due to the number of new contracts received. So this is an excellent investment choice for this environment. The big caps can finish their correction, and begin to build a bottom, then start slowly climbing. When the market sees this happening, the depressed small caps that have predictable growth at a rate higher than the market will be very attractive targets. The huge pool of cash on the sidelines will begin to move into these kinds of stocks. This is what usually happens coming out of a bear market. Paul

To: patroller who wrote (4601)	10/10/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: Nikos Tsivranidis	Respond to of 6317

Patroller, others, if you want a great intro to the global financial crisis, check out: stern.nyu.edu Notice the date it was written: Nov 3 1997 ! And notice who wrote it...

To: patroller who wrote (4601)	10/10/1998 11:50:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Patroller, it certainly could happen. But I consider it just as likely that all the yuppies who have been making 15-20% per year in their mutual/index funds look at their next statements -- and cutting interest rates have no significant favorable intermediate or longer term economic impact. That is why I tend to stay far away from market forecasting and stick to the merits of individual companies. However, I do feel the situation is dangerous enough that I posted that it would be prudent for anyone overexposed to the market, which I defined as on margin or owning call options, do something about it -- and reminded readers that bear markets do not care about fundamentals. When people want out it does not matter how good the company is.

To: patroller who wrote (4601)	12/12/1998 10:52:00 PM
From: patroller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

jeffrey bash remember my prediction of a 11000 dow by march in oct. seems someone else agrees. < Jeffrey bash, Iam going to make a prediction ,the fed's will lower short term rates and reinflate the US economy, Japan will take some of that enormous wealth and stimulate their economy,no more recession, shorts cover big time,money on the sidelines flows back in the market and boom 11000 by march,why you ask would that happen? because it can. jmho patroller > NEW YORK -- Investors should be prepared for some serious volatility next year, and stock selection will play a bigger role, but 1999 offers more upside potential than downside risk, according to influential analyst Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities Inc. The well-known market observer held his annual stock market outlook Friday, and said October's bloodbath set the stage for the renewal of the secular bull market that started in late 1994. Mr. Acampora reiterated his forecast from earlier this month that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could climb as high as high 11500 next year, but a worst-case scenario would put the average closer to 7800. Investors should prepare for more gyrations, he said. "Sudden and very nasty declines should mark the coming year," Mr. Acampora said. "As there are no quick fixes to all of our global problems, international aftershocks will most likely occur frequently. And investors should not forget all of the uncertainty surrounding the [year 2000] problem." Mr. Acampora noted that although the Dow industrials set a new highs in November, 71% of all stock sectors tracked by Standard & Poor's indexes failed to do the same. But pointed to bullish technical factors, as well. For instance, he said that once the Dow's rally started to ease in early December, a shift in the relative performance between the Dow, the S&P MidCap and the S&P SmallCap occurred. "The relative strength lines in both the S&P MidCap and SmallCap are showing signs of improvement," he said. "I need to witness more of this behavior before I can label the new shift in secondary performance as sustainable, but a glimmer is apparent." Mr. Acampora also reiterated his belief that long-term interest rates are eventually headed below 4.5%. lucky guess.<ggg> patroller