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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (8491)	10/9/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: jbe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67261

Michelle, on your Jocelyn Elders remark, I understand what you were trying to say.. The point I was trying to make (in a telegraphic fashion) was that Dr. Elders was pilloried not so much for what she personally thought about a particular policy, as for advocating that we all discuss it! Publicly! And even challenge it! And then, perhaps, revise it! Oh, horrors! It is true that "controversial" -- or "naive"-- types like Dr. Elders tend to antagonize too many people to get anything done -- themselves. But by ignoring the taboos on certain subjects and opening up public discourse, they may make it easier for their successors to get something done (if their successors actually want to). jbe

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (8491)	10/9/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 67261

Hi Michelle! More good news - especially since you can't abide Boxer - with her unfavorable ratings it is virtually impossible for her to win.: Fong Wrests Lead From Boxer Poll reveals gender gap in Senate race John Wildermuth, Chronicle Political Writer Friday, October 9, 1998 Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer's bid for re-election is in serious trouble, according to a new Field Poll that shows Republican challenger Matt Fong with a 48 percent to 44 percent lead among likely voters. The race, which was tied at 45 percent in an August poll, is moving steadily in Fong's favor, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. ''(Boxer's) got her work cut out for her,'' he said. ''It's slipping away.'' It is male voters who are torpedoing Boxer's campaign. The poll results show a huge gender gap. Among men, Fong holds a 56 percent to 35 percent lead, while Boxer has a 53 percent to 41 percent edge among female voters. Only 34 percent of male voters have a favorable impression of Boxer, compared with 50 percent of the women. Even men of her own party have moved away from Boxer. While Republican men support Fong by 88 percent to 9 percent, Boxer only has a 71 percent to 20 percent edge among male Democrats. ''The focus of the 1992 campaign was women, but this year it's the reverse,'' said DiCamillo. ''What we're seeing is a rejection of this woman by men. Men are turning their backs on (Boxer).'' Since April, when Boxer held a lead of 47 percent to 41 percent over the virtually unknown state treasurer, Fong's numbers have climbed steadily while Boxer's support has eroded. The poll highlights the ambivalence California voters feel toward Boxer, whose highly partisan, in- your-face style has made her plenty of enemies over the years. ''Even before the June primary, Boxer was not opening up a big lead at any point, which was odd, since fewer than half the people had any opinion of Fong,'' DiCamillo said. ''Caution flags were raised then, and this is the natural end result.'' Despite six years in the Senate and a decade as a congresswoman, the Greenbrae Democrat apparently has built up little good will among California voters. Boxer's favorability ratings, never high to begin with, skidded from 49 percent in August to 42 percent in the latest poll, while the percentage of voters who view her unfavorably jumped to 48 percent. She is doing worse among men, of whom 58 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of her. For Fong, the latest Field Poll is almost unalloyed good news. His recognition has grown from 45 percent in April to 72 percent today, and likely voters are pleased with what they have learned. The poll shows that 55 percent of voters have a favorable impression of him, while only 17 percent view him unfavorably. ''The bad news for Boxer is that candidates introducing themselves to the voters are not always well-received,'' DiCamillo said. ''Fong has been.'' Although the poll gives Boxer a 59 percent to 37 percent lead among Bay Area voters and a margin of 13 percentage points in Los Angeles County, Fong has an overwhelming 59 percent to 32 percent lead in the rest of Southern California and a 51 percent to 38 percent advantage in the Central Valley. Boxer has a wide 61 percent to 29 percent lead among all minority group voters, although Fong appears to have a 2-to-1 lead among Asians, DiCamillo said. In the past, Boxer's supporters have discounted polls indicating that the Democrat was in trouble. Even this week, campaign officials were touting polls they said showed Boxer with a five-point lead over her GOP opponent. With more than $3.6 million in the bank for the final month's push, Boxer's people argue that they have the resources they need for a television ad campaign that will turn the race around. So far, the push does not seem to be working. Polling for the most recent survey began September 27, the same day the Boxer campaign started running a hard-hitting TV ad aimed at Fong's opposition to gun control. There was no indication that the ad had any effect on the voters, DiCamillo said. ''What Boxer has to do now is stem the tide that's moving in Fong's direction,'' he said. ''She has to move the focus of the campaign to him instead of her.'' Fong's task is a lot easier. ''What he has to do is pretty much stay the course and not do anything to upset the voters,'' DiCamillo said. The results were based on a survey conducted September 27 to October 5 among a representative sample of 998 registered voters, of whom 703 were deemed to be likely voters in the November general election. The probable margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. sfgate.com