''Most ominous,'' said Zogby, ''is that if a candidate
voices support for Clinton, voters are 2-to-1 less
likely to vote for the candidate. Among
independents, they're 4-to-1 less likely.''
NATIONAL ISSUE
DO POLLS MEAN WHAT
THEY SAY? Rise In Clinton's
Job Rating May Conceal
Anger
Date: 10/12/98
Author: Matthew Robinson
For many Americans, one scandal stands above all
others in the Monica Lewinsky affair.
It isn't the illicit sex. It isn't the lies. It isn't the
obstruction of justice.
It's the polls.
Hardly a day goes by that media don't report a
new poll giving President Clinton soaring job
approval ratings. Clinton admits he lied about his
affair with a White House intern, but still keeps the
support of the people.
In poll after poll, Clinton's job approval ratings
have hovered around 60%.
But dig deeper, and there's evidence the
president's support is slipping and the American
people are distrustful and embarrassed by his
behavior.
Some have come to question the science behind
the polls.
Polling is ''an art, not a science,'' said House
Judiciary Chairman Henry Hyde, R-Ill. And House
Minority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, said, ''Polls
are just a snapshot in time.''
For others, polls are a democratic shield from the
bullets of criticism. Democrats point to Bill
Clinton's high job approval rating and endorse
censure rather than impeachment.
The picture is muddied by the fact that many of
those polled don't seem to understand some of the
special terms used. For instance, only 24% of
Americans know what censure is, according to the
Polling Co.'s survey of likely voters.
And most polls show the public against impeaching
the president.
''Unfortunately, the polls seem to say people think
Clinton should be above the law,'' said Judge
Griffin Bell, President Carter's attorney general.
Are polls scientific?
Yes, say experts - at least the big polls are. But
you have to be very careful in looking at them.
Polls capture public sentiment at one moment and
must be viewed in context, pollsters admit. The
way questions are worded, when a poll is
conducted and how the sample group is picked all
make a difference. Even a fair poll can suffer if the
media don't report it in context and depth.
Pollsters usually survey between 800 and 1,000
people. More than this becomes very expensive
and gives only slightly better accuracy.
Pollsters use random digit dialers -computers that
choose from all the households with telephones in
America. Random selection is key because roughly
one-third of phone numbers are unlisted.
After a computer selects the phone numbers,
pollsters call to find a sample group matching U.S.
Census findings for the population as a whole for
income, sex, race, region, education and age.
To fill the sample, pollsters often call anywhere
from five to 10 times the number of people
questioned in a poll.
Who gets queried can make a huge difference.
''We poll likely voters,'' said pollster John Zogby
of Zogby International. ''For matters of public
policy, their demographic (profile) and ideology is
often a very different makeup (from all voters).''
Zogby is renowned for his accurate election-day
forecasts.
''We all face a sampling problem -Democrats are
more likely to respond to polls,'' said Zogby.
''Republicans (also) are less likely to be at home
on weekends. They're also less likely to put up
with demeaning questions.''
Likely voters tend to be better educated, have
higher incomes, follow issues more closely and be
more conservative, pollsters agree.
If polls are accurate, do Clinton's job approval
ratings make him untouchable?
For many critics, Clinton's success means he could
get away with serious offenses. But pollsters
caution about viewing job approval out of context.
'' 'Approval' is not a deep measurement,'' said
Kellyanne Fitzpatrick of the Polling Co. ''It is a
passing grade.''
Job approval ratings measure the broad direction
of the country. And few polls ask respondents
what the president's job is.
''Job approval directly relates to economics and
foreign policy,'' said Frank Newport, editor in
chief of the Gallup Poll. ''It's been that way since
(President Franklin D. Roosevelt).'' The New
Jersey-based Gallup Organization has surveyed
Americans about politics for the last six decades.
Americans think that the president has three tasks:
Manage the government, stay in sync with their
issues and provide moral leadership, Newport
said.
So why are Clinton's job approval ratings so high?
''I think this is one of those exceptions in which it is
possible for poll results to become reinforcing and
self- fulfilling,'' said Arnold Steinberg, a Republican
pollster. ''People keep reading about a disconnect
between the private and personal, so it becomes
socially acceptable to think that.''
Other polls show underlying problems. A majority
(51.8%) of likely voters are ashamed to call Bill
Clinton president, Zogby found. That's up from
just 31% in July.
The Polling Co. found only 22% of Americans say
they're ''proud'' of Clinton - 20 points less than
April '97. Some 48% are embarrassed. The rest
feel ''in between.''
These numbers may be one reason Democrats
such as House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt,
D-Mo., and Senate Minority Leader Tom
Daschle, D-S.D., want to see a 30-day limit on the
impeachment inquiry.
''Most ominous,'' said Zogby, ''is that if a candidate
voices support for Clinton, voters are 2-to-1 less
likely to vote for the candidate. Among
independents, they're 4-to-1 less likely.''
Those kinds of numbers could create pressure
from Democrats for Clinton to resign.
''If they sense the price of the president is (costing)
a lot of seats, the tide could change quickly,'' said
Zogby.
Clinton's job approval may also benefit from a
discounting factor.
''There is a long-standing American tradition
reflected in polls since the beginning that politics
and corruption are connected,'' said Bowman.
The economy also plays a role. ''Broad satisfaction
from prosperity allows Americans to escape the
political process. Their minds are elsewhere,''
Bowman said.
A recent Christian Science Monitor/Technometrica
Institute for Policy and Politics poll found 57% of
those surveyed approve of how Clinton is handling
his job. Some 67% of those fear it would have a
''negative impact'' on the economy if President
Clinton had to leave office before his term was up.
''The survey shows that pocketbook issues may be
a big reason why President Clinton's support hasn't
fallen,'' said Raghavan Mayur, who directed the
Monitor/TIPP poll.
Still, why does Clinton get so much credit?
Republicans have failed to show that prosperity
comes from global economic restructuring, new
technology and Congress' elimination of budget
deficits, Steinberg said.
''Republicans don't want to rock the boat,''
Steinberg said.
Congress, too, benefits from peace and prosperity.
A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll asked
Americans whether they approve or disapprove of
the way their congressman is doing his job. Fully
70% said they approve.
Bowman offers one more explanation of Clinton's
high job approval ratings.
''Sometimes I think that Americans think
Washington culture is a world apart - like the
celebrity culture in Hollywood,'' she said.
Most Americans would find Bill Clinton's behavior
abhorrent if they encountered it in their own lives.
For instance:
Only one out of five agree with Clinton that sexual
relations only occur if there is intercourse, Gallup
found.
More than half of men said they would respect
Clinton only ''a little'' or ''not at all'' if he were their
boss, not president, according to the Polling Co.
And more than two out of three women said they
would trust Clinton to keep his word only ''a little''
or ''not at all'' if they were married to him.
The polls are clear about one thing, Bowman said:
Roughly 35% to 45% of Americans think the
president should consider resigning.
''With those kinds of numbers, there won't be a
significant backlash if Congress impeaches,''
Bowman said.
Often polls are just covered poorly.
''As journalists report science, they should
investigate, verify and consult other scientists to
judge the quality of the work,'' Newport said.
For instance, a New York Times- CBS News poll
found Clinton had a 66% job approval rating
among all registered voters. Only 39% of
registered voters said they back Republicans,
while 44% back Democrats.
But ''most likely voters'' - those who voted in both
'94 and '96 and are paying a lot of attention to the
current campaign - give the GOP a 12-point edge.
Some 53% back Republicans. Only 41% back
Democrats.
Among that same group, 49% disapprove of
Clinton's job performance. And 48% approve.
Impeachment or no, the untold story may be felt
by Democrats in elections Nov. 3.
investors.com
Zogby polling shows why Morris predicts a 40 seat pickup for the Reps in the House. Most reports predict a 5-10 seat gain but those same were wrong in the past while Morris and Zogby have been the best at predicting the electorate and actual results. |
