Y2K Problem -- Russian Nuclear Launch Controls
The Russian nuclear launch controls are virtually human free, thanks to automation. Their systems are antiquated by modern day
standards and they have a true flaw given the Y2K problem -- embedded chips that only recognize two digit yearly calendar
information. The U.S. military conducted tests in the early 90's when they first got wind of a potential Y2K problem that might affect
their own nuclear launch capabilities, and their systems "failed" miserably. If the U.S. military nuclear launch systems had/still have
this problem imagine the Russian picture. In the early 80's the Russians upgraded their systems to almost totally human free
(anticipating a total wipe-out of their General staff in the event of a nuclear confrontation). Imagine if the Russian nuclear launch
computer system because of bad data inflow sees an imaginary (but still real to the computer) launching of ICBMs aimed at Russia,
vole -- the Russian computers launch everything in their arsenal at the projected threat. End result -- potential horror for innocent
human beings.
Y2K Problem -- Failure by world governments to lead the fight
against the millennium computer bomb heightens the possibility of economic and
social catastrophe.
Despite increasing awareness of the problem, experts say the chance of
widespread computer failure looms when clocks strike midnight on December 31,
1999.
Many government organisations as well as businessess are still vulnerable to
collapse. Politicians need to lead the fight, but are falling down on the job,
the experts add.
''Leadership has been shockingly absent. If calamity takes place, they
(political leaders) will all be blamed. They are wimping out and hoping it
will go away by itself,'' said Dr Ed Yardeni, chief economist at merchant
bankers Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in New York.
Computers running crucial operations such as power stations, air traffic
control, banking, and government social services are exposed to a potentially
huge problem with comparatively trivial origins.
In the early days of computing, programmers saved what was then expensive
space by truncating years to two digits. Programmers knew that this would
cause problems because two digit numbers would be unable to make sense of
2000. Computers would crash or produce flawed data. Programmers assumed that
such models would be obsolete by 2000. They were wrong.
Yardeni has been one of the most vocal millennium bomb prophets of doom. Not
all experts have agreed with his opinions, which include the belief that the
shock to the world economy may be worse than the recession which followed the
1973 OPEC oil embargo.
OECD WARNS ABOUT 25 BILLION CHIPS
A recent report from the 29-member Organisation of Economic Cooperation and
Development concluded that the millennium bomb threatens computer and
communications networks, and electronic systems worldwide.
The OECD, which is hosting a conference in London on October 16 called the
Global Year 2000 Summit, also pointed to a problem with so-called ''embedded
chips.''
These provide the brain power behind sophisticated systems such as life
support machines in hospitals, railway signals, and industrial machinery.
''Although the failure rate of such embedded systems is very low -- between
one and three percent -- the number of installed chips is estimated to be as
high as 25 billion worldwide,'' the OECD said.
The OECD said key sectors like utilities, communications, financial and
government services were vulnerable, as were Asia and Russia.
WHAT HAPPENED TO G7 ACTION PLAN?
The OECD report called for action by governments, echoing a call from the
Group of Seven leading industrial nations after a summit meeting last May. No
G7 action was forthcoming. The G7 called for a meeting of experts, which never
took place.
This showed that governments were grandstanding, rather than being serious,
said Adam Wright, an analyst with the high-technology consultancy SRI
International.
''That (G7) inaction highlights the fact that governments are good at making a
song and dance about year 2000 problems, but when it comes to doing something
practical, they shy away from it,'' Wright said.
Tim Shepheard-Walwyn, of the Zurich-based Global 2000 Coordinating Group,
takes a less apocalyptic view of the problem for governments, but still said
they should gird for action.
''We would like to see further action. Governments can and need to take a
leading role here,'' said Shepheard-Walwyn.
Global 2000, which coordinates action by banks and financial institutions
around the world as they prepare for the millennium, is worried about the risk
posed by possible weakening confidence.
''You only have to look at international markets at present to see how
dependent they are on confidence. The year 2000 will undoubtedly be a
confidence factor in 1999, no question about that, it is important for
financial firms and governments to be aware of that issue and have sensible
plans to deal with those concerns,'' said Shepheard-Walwyn.
''This includes understanding issues like linkages in power supply between
different countries. For example do we know the extent to which raw materials
like oil and gas coming out of Russia affect world power supply, and are they
dependent on computer technolgy.''
LEADERSHIP LACKING
This isn't good enough for an exasperated Yardeni of Deutche Morgan Grenfell.
''The G7 (May) meeting placed Y2K right at the end of the communique. That
indicates how important they felt it was. It's outright pathetic that there
hasn't been any leadership from a global politician,'' said Yardeni by
telephone from New York.
''What if power grids don't work? How do you allocate power to sectors of the
economy? What if hospitals find they can't get power. Who will decide who gets
treatment and who doesn't?''
Governments had to dust down plans to combat rioting and looting if computers
pumping out cheques to the poor and unemployed dried up for weeks or even
months.
Yardeni worried about the possibility of nuclear missiles being fired
accidentally.
''We should right now insist on nuclear missile disarmament talks. I don't
think either side (Russia and U.S.) can guarantee that command and control
will work. And why should they be aimed at each other,'' said Yardeni.
He called for world leaders to set up structures to meet emergencies and guide
action now.
''We need chief millennium officers in every country and a global chief
millennium officer. There's still a lot of talk about awareness. It's time to make some contingency plans,''
Y2K Problem --OVERVIEW Because so many people have recently joined this Y2K news alert, I'd like to summarize the current Y2K situation of
our planet. It's important to get the "big picture" from time to time.
Critical services are threatened The best evidence available clearly shows critical services are severely threatened. This includes
power, telecommunications, banking, transportation, food services, medical services, defense, and local city services.
Timelines have come and gone The October 30 deadline for all govt. agencies to be finished with repairs has come and gone. Not
one agency made the deadline. Now we are looking at a December 31, 1998 deadline for most companies and government
agencies. Most likely, many will miss that one, too. As the deadline keeps moving deeper in to 1999, the reality becomes painfully
clear: these people are just stalling. "Progress" is very slow, and instead of getting accurate data, we're getting spin.
Many organizations are still in the assessment stage Unbelievably, some companies are still in the assessment stage. A large
percentage of power companies and at least one major telecommunications carrier (U.S. West) is still in assessment. Remember,
assessment is stage 1 of the 5-stage Y2K repair plan, usually requiring three years to complete for a medium-sized company.
Large organizations need longer.
All we get are prepared legal statements Rather than real answers and good data, these organizations keep feeding us B.S. legal
statements that include meaningless pronouncements like, "We are well on our way to completing repairs," and "We are committed
to completing all repairs before 2000." Almost no company offers hard compliance facts, and to date, not one major bank, power
company, transportation firm, government agency or telecommunications company has yet achieved compliance.
Organizations admit to misleading compliance progress reports Several organizations (the Dept of Defense, the State of California)
have now admitted they misled us about their compliance. They now say they will be honest about it. How many other organizations
are still lying and just haven't been caught?
There are no Y2K compliance officers There is no independent group running around the country verifying compliance claims.
When a company or organization claims they are compliant, it's pretty much accepted as fact. For example, when the Federal
Reserve reports on the compliance status of banks, it is basing that primarily on
reports
from that bank, not a hard-core, on-your-hands-and-needs examination of the bank's software and hardware. The Fed doesn't have
the time nor the expertise to engage in extensive compliance verification of member banks.
Other countries are way behind As bad as things look in the U.S., they look much worse overseas. China and Russia, in
particular, are in a near-hopeless Y2K repair situation. Without a doubt, they will suffer massive disruptions in nearly all critical
services. These countries are going to live in a pre-1900 environment for years while they work to repair their infrastructure. Will that
affect the U.S? Of course it will. Expect a global depression like our civilization has never seen.
These countries are in relatively good shape The United States, Canada, England, Australia, most of Western Europe
These countries are in relatively bad shape China, Russia, Eastern Europe, Africa, South America
Some key supplies have been nearly wiped out It's already nearly impossible to purchase Katadyn water filters and Alladin oil
lamps. Hand-cranked radios and flashlights and disappearing fast. MREs are almost impossible to find in large quantities. Suppliers
are getting wiped out and back orders are stretching into the summer of 1999.
Food suppliers are months behind on delivery The nation's largest "survival" food suppliers are months behind schedule. One is
now shipping in February of 1999. Even the best suppliers are still taking around 6 weeks.
Large numbers are planning on taking out cash A recent ZD / Harris poll revealed that 20% of those polled plan on taking out all
their cash from their banks. This staggering amount is more than enough to crash the entire banking system, the Fed, and the FDIC
all at once. The banks themselves hold enough cash to cover 1.32% of deposits, and the FDIC holds enough cash to cover an
additional 1. 25%. The Fed is printing extra currency next year, but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the $3.7 trillion in
deposits that banks owe their customers. "There simply isn't enough cash in the system," one Fed officer told me during an
interview. If enough people really do want their cash, the banking system collapses. This is not debatable, it is built in to the
system. The only thing that would prevent collapse of the banks is if the public maintains a high enough confidence and stays
convinced that they won't need to pull out their cash (which will hopefully be the case).
IT spending on Y2K is way up Compared to last year, companies are spending a lot of of their IT budgets (information technology)
on fixing Y2K problems. Last year they spent 7%. This year they are spending 44%. Next year, they might spend everything on it in
a last-ditch effort to finish right before January 1, 2000. This number is disturbing because it reveals that most companies weren't
really directing large resources to this problem until this year.
CONCLUSIONS Based on the evidence available, it is reasonable to conclude the following:
Government services will be shut down There is a very high proability that Medicare, Social Security and the IRS will cease to
function for some period of time: perhaps days, weeks or months. The Dept of Defense, which has now "classified" its Y2K status,
will also likely be left dead in the water. Assume that all federal government services will be temporarily or permanently disrupted.
For one, if the IRS computers stay off line, you have to wonder how the government can survive at all. Where would it get the
money?
Telecommunications will experience severe disruptions If you thought the Galaxy IV satellite problem was major, wait until Y2K
hits. Telecomm services will be down all over the world, the United States included. While there will be areas where services stay
up, severe disruptions in phone services and data networking services are very likely.
Power will experience severe disruptions Power plants will fail and be taken off line in a rolling blackout that will eventially cover the
entire planet. If some plants can be isolated from the power grid in time, they can restart and supply power to local communities or
perhaps entire cities. As a whole, however, power companies are far behind in their compliance efforts, and the outlook for power
companies in general is poor. In addition, power companies depend on telecommunications, so if telecomm is hurt, power
companies will either shut down or operate inefficiently.
Transportation will experience severe disruptions Trains, planes and trucking will all be severely disrupted. Trains have a
"switching" problem, where track switches are all controlled by non-compliant mainframe computers. Planes suffer from a
non-compliant FAA and yet-unproven navigation and control equipment, and trucking -- although it will be the best off -- may have
difficulty getting fuel. In addition, trucking is a computer-coordinated industry, using satellites to beam destination information to the
drivers and mainframe computers to calculate optimum routes. Without the benefit of computers, trucks may still roll, but the
efficiencies will be dramatically reduced. Shipments will take much longer, and the "availability" of trucks will be severely hurt.
Food will be in short supply for some time Because of disruptions in transportation and the effort of people to engage in
last-minute food stockpiling, food will become very scarce. In addition, the Gartner Group research reveals that the farming and food
processing industries are the worst behind, meaning that new food items to replace those being stored or eaten will arrive very
slowly, if at all. Furthermore, if fuel cannot be acquired, farming is halted. You can't feed an entire nation if you're shucking corn by
hand. Only mass automation and computer-driven efficiencies allow 2% of the population (the farmers) to feed the other 98%. That
automation will disappear without fuel, electricity, or telecommunications, and we'll be left with the farmers feeding their own families
and the other 98% of the country wondering what to do.
Fresh water will be in short supply Water facilities in most cities are subject to Y2K disruptions. This is especially the case if
power goes off. Fresh water will be scarce, if not impossible to find in the city. People with water filters will likely avoid the outbreak
of water-borne diseases, but most people don't own water filters.
Some cities will be extremely dangerous Riots will undoubtedly begin in some cities like L.A. -- especially if telecomm or power
goes down and these people realize 911 doesn't respond. The riots will quickly outgrow the ability of the local police, National
Guard, or even the U.S. military to handle, and they will be abandoned. Expect massive fires, looting, and loss of life. The severity of
these riots depends on the power grid and telecomm. If those two systems can manage to stay up, the riots may be averted. If
those two systems go down, expect the worst riots in the history of our nation.
Banking
may
suffer severe disruptions, depending on what happens overseas If overseas banks start collapsing due to bank runs, you can
expect the fear to quickly spread to the USA. Once 5% of the U.S. depositors withdraw their cash, the banking system is finished.
This could happen overnight, given the right circumstances. However, the overall health of U.S. banks as far as compliance goes is
relatively good. It is the
fear
itself that poses the largest potential threat. If you believe nobody will withdraw their money, your money is probably safe, too. If
you believe everybody will withdraw their money, yours will be lost unless you are at the front of the line.
Deflation, not inflation, is the short-term risk The deflation of our currency is the largest risk. What is deflation? That means money
is being removed from circulation faster than it can be replaced. That means dollars become
more
valuable and can purchase more, not less. It also means available capital for loans and investment shrinks rapidly.
If bank runs begin, banks will be forced to close or limit withdrawals If the bank runs to begin, the President will have to act quickly
to avert a widespread collapse. The most likely actions will include mandatory bank holidays (closing the banks) or limiting cash
withdrawals to a certain dollar amount each day. In this scenario, the banks would hope to delay the panic long enough to receive
new shipments of cash from the Fed and get the President on TV telling everybody that everything is OK. This action could reverse
a short-term panic and encourage consumer confidence in the system, which would avoid the collapse. All this could take place
BEFORE Y2K because the panic, if it begins at all, will likely begin in late 1999.
It doesn't mean there will only be one panic, though. Imagine a scenario where people panic in November of 1999. The President
calms people down and the Fed closes the banks long enough to re-stock them with freshly-printed cash. The panic is averted. But
two months later, Y2K hits and power fails. This gets people nervous again and the bank runs start all over. If television stations
aren't able to operate, and telecommunications are down, the President won't be able to talk to the American people, and the panic
will only get worse. Lack of information makes people afraid. They will act on that by pulling out their cash.
SUMMARY: It is now October of 1998.
Most
people still aren't aware of Y2K and yet we already have widespread shortages of preparedness equipment and dehydrated foods.
There will be a time in 1999, I call it the "supply threshold," when it will literally be too late for anybody to buy anything related to
preparedness. The supplies will be depleted or the shipping times will be backlogged well into 2000. When this threshold is
reached, it will cause a panic. When people dial that 1-800 number to place an order, and they get a recording that says, "Sorry,
we're all sold out through 2000," they will become afraid of Y2K, perhaps for the first time.
I don't know what day this supply threshold will occur. Best estimates put it in June of 1999, but it could be a lot sooner or a lot
later. Nevertheless, when that day is reached, and when the general population begins to finally grasp the significance of widespread
infrastructure failure, there will be no stopping the fear.
ONE FINAL NOTE: If power, telecommunications, banking, transportation and government can stay up, it is likely that Y2K will be a
non-event. But if any one of those goes down and stays down, we are literally talking about the collapse of modern civilization.
Without power, we cannot exist as a modern nation. If telecomm fails, it will eventually cause the collapse of power, banking, and
government. If banking goes down and stays down, it will interfere with power and telecommunications and it will collapse the
government... and so on.
Understand these are highly interconnected. Banking
cannot
exist without the phone lines for more than a few days. Power plants
cannot
run without phone lines to coordinate the production, management and distribution of power. These are facts. They are not
debatable. If you don't agree with these statements, you do not understand how power plants and banks work. You're encouraged to
go talk with your local bank or power plant and ask how long they can operate if the communication lines go down. I've done exactly
that, and the answer is, "a few days, at most." That's the bottom line: a few days. This is what stands between our country being a
modern, high-tech world leader and a pre-1900's third-world country. Everything is at stake, and yet we still have
telecommunications companies in the assessment stage.
This is not an ideal situation. Let's hope it improves in 1999.
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