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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Hoefer who wrote (5128)	10/9/1998 11:44:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78530

Hi Robert: Yes, they are all companies I own. I still own every share of OLS. I usually plan to average down, and that's what I do, but for some stocks, at some point (the wrong point -g-) I realize I've got too much of a particular company and I step aside. I still own every share of OLS that I've bought at much higher prices. It surely does not look good. Okay, lowering my outlook for the company - its outsourcing and health care businesses are terrible, and maybe the management is not as forthcoming or competent as I expected, but I still do think the company at some point will be selling at least for book value, so I see the stock doubling from here. That would still make it an unprofitable investment for me. The salient point is that I believe the stock price will double from about 5 to 10. So I want to hold. That's my plan. I also hold a small amount of RJR as I posted on it here. James Clarke said MO was the better bet, get out of RNR. He was right (MO has done pretty darn good since his post). I did not take his advice. That was a mistake. Dollarwise and percentagewise-- a big mistake. LHO is an enigma to me -- or maybe the word is enema. Only way to find out is to give it some time. If there's a recession, and if hotel occupancies decline, and if this comes out of the hide of LHO earnings-- the stock is already presupposing a dividend cut (or else there's some knowledge of mananagement shennanegans/incompetence or balance sheet folderol going on -- but James Clarke would've caught those things I figure), so we would presume the stock would decline even further. But that's not necessarily true. They do have those Class A hotels and in '99 in a recession, we'll be looking forward to better times (I hope) in '00 and '01. Paul.