To: Dr. Bob who wrote (18060 ) 10/10/1998 10:06:00 PM From: joe Respond to of 77400
Dr. Bob, You've started a good discussion on whether thursday was "panic" (fear) selling or just a temporary bottom with the real capitulation to come. The way I see it is there is no reason for the average investor to panic. That's why the thursday was not 100% panic selling. The investor's that are panicing are a lot of these hedge funds that have had deals go bad on them. Most investor's know this and also know that prices areincredibly low. They also know that earnings will be good with top companies. Ok, let's say there is a correction because '99 may be a bit slow for a while for telecom. Well, the correction we've seen this last week is totally exaggerated - irrational selling. To sum up, yes there has been some fear...from hedge funds. Is the "real capitulation" to come? Possibly - good chance, since hedge funds aren't quite done unwinding positions. But, IMO, it's the hedge funds that need to massively get out of positions who are doing the "real capitulation - panicing". Let us then use this info to squeeze them to death<g> and give us some great bargains . The remaining investor's have nothing to fear if they know this. If more than enough investor's know this - possibly the case now - we won't see further lows. Either way, kick back and acknowledge a gift horse when you see one. I ask myself what's my biggest fear . Answer: severe slowdown in world economy and/or Brazil devaluation. BUT, the Fed is ready to lower rates preempting Brazilian devaluation, and the US is much stronger economically than a lot of fear-mongers have led us to believe. Finally, from my observations, tech is scheduled to have a strong 2nd 1/2 '99. comments and feedback much appreciated. joe