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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Darrin Vernier who wrote (31057)	10/9/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Take a look at the charts on my site: cres.anu.edu.au I was doubting my scenario after today... David

To: Darrin Vernier who wrote (31057)	10/9/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I might as well put in my 2 cents worth on this topic. One scenario not yet mentioned is 5 to 6 months of trading, between 7500 and 8500 (INDU). I think this range will be tough to maintain for that length of time, but is very likely for the next 2 to 3 weeks. The market wants the bears and the bulls to struggle a bit, and to make any TAs good some of the time, but not all the time. Furthermore, the longer it takes to drop to 6500, the less likely it will drop to 5500. By that time, the bears will hibernate and bulls rest up, for a few months, while the market oscillate between 6500 and 7500. Next week, there should be a test of Thursday's low. If it holds, then up to 8000. I don't think this market has any steam to break above 8200 (on close), while it is grudgingly trying to break below 7,500 on the close. Something is keeping it above 7500 on closing basis. That 7500 floor is pretty strong support. IMO, it may only last another month. The break down to 6500 may occur next month, after very exhausting struggle. Then the doldrums will be with us for 6 to 12 months. I think 6500 is a very fair valuation of the market by middle of next year, and enough to remove unreasonable expectations from the market.

To: Darrin Vernier who wrote (31057)	10/9/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Darrin: Good observation! However, I would recommend you draw the upper descending trend line by using the highs of 7/17 and 9/29. Dow Industrials End of Day Theoretical Semi-Log Chart: Cycle Indicator Signal Descriptions A = Sell/Buy Alert B = Short/Medium Term Sell/Buy Signal C = Medium/Long Term Sell/Buy Signal D = Long Term Confirmation The upper descending trend line projected forward one-day for Monday is approximately 8075. For the lower horizontal trend line I find 7475 is closer. I believe next week is going to be a key week. As of today's close my cycle indicators are giving “A” buy alerts on the Dow Composite, Industrials, NYSE Composite and SPX. Also, moving toward giving the same signal on Dow Transports, NASDQ Composite and Russell 2000. Of course, I must mention that the Dow Utilities have received a “A” sell alert! With the overall market, moving counter to the norm with regards to interest rates, (IE: Interest rate drops normally help the market!) coupled with the Utilities being much more sensitive to interest rates, a divergence between the Dow Utilities and the rest of the Market is occurring. I believe the Market has either begun a rally or at least started a sideways period. This pause in the downturn started at the reverse off the intra day lows yesterday, Thursday 10/9. If the market makes a significant break above 8075 this will portend further movement to the upside with next resistance at approximately 8250 then 8350. The market as measured by the Dow Industrials is closing in on a decision point. The above converging trend lines will require a decision from the Market! A significant break below will confirm a major bear market and a significant break above will at least portend a considerable bear rally! BWDIK Regards, LG

To: Darrin Vernier who wrote (31057)	10/9/1998 11:57:00 PM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Darrin you took the words right out of my mouth...isnt that downtrend line AMAZING??? But I dont know how you get 5937??? I drew an uptrend line and I come at about 5000. In 1929 one could have also drawn an uptrendline which found the bottom. However in 1929 there was a "throw-under" which smashed below the uptrendline for a few days...This leads me to believe that we will hit 5000 and go under by about maybe 500 points for a few days which will be our "throw-under" Tom

To: Darrin Vernier who wrote (31057)	10/10/1998 1:38:00 AM
From: Brad Bolen	Respond to of 94695

RE: that if one drew a 45 degree angle from the July top down to today's close, one would have a clear trend line. Darrin, That is the trend line I was referring to also. I agree with you totally. If that line can be broken and stay broken for SEVERAL days, then I will be in GZ's camp. Until then... Hasta la Pasta, Marketto. B.

To: Darrin Vernier who wrote (31057)	10/10/1998 11:56:00 AM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hello Darrin, the little I have read about drawing trend lines states that you draw them so that they do not CUT through prior days prints. By drawing the line from July top down to todays close would violate that rule and cut thru the highs of 9/28 and 9/29. The following method (described in Trader Vic-Methods), provides consistent and accurate results and never gives false signals: 1) Select the period of consideration: long term, intermediate term, and short term. 2) Uptrend-Draw a line from the lowest low, up to the highest minor low point preceding the highest high such that the line does not pass through prices in between the two low points 3)Downtrend-Draw a line from the highest high point to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low such that the line does not pass through prices in between the two high points FWIW IMHO Monty