Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (4642)	10/10/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

x y zebra, Lucent is a fine company but grossly overvalued. The actual price of Lucent should be in the $40 range. The growth story is a Wall Street BS story to sell you more stock and profit from you. Growth is a general tendency of any business until it saturates the market or fiece competition arives. As it is in Lucent case. ALA, ERICY, SIEMENS, NT,Fujitsu, NTT, Matshusita (spell??)and a host of others small and big. Lucent was a momentum stock until this summer, therfore the sharp run-up. take a look at NT, also the closest competitor. Lucent was/is in the same category of CSCO, DELL, MSFT all grossly overvalued stocks which are perceived as monopolies but are not, in the real market place. All companies confront very high competition same as HWP, IBM, SUNW, CPQ in their own businesess. Therefore the multiple premium on growth and earnings is not warranted. Stock preices are priced based on perception not fundamentals, otherwise how can one explain the prices of YHOO or AMZN. On option expiration, Lucent closing between 57.5 to 65 will make me money this week.(due to intricate option hedges) BWDIK Haim

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (4642)	10/10/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: D. Newberry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

x y, <<As for Lucent, I insist that the growth potential is considerable. Their international sales, at this time, represent somewhere between 20% to 25% of their total sales. I believe that these sales may increase in the future, both in terms of total volume and as a percentage of total sales.>> I agree with you here. Lucent is in the right business, and appears to have excellent management. <<Please explain to me why LU 3-4 weeks ago was valued at 80 to 100, then it drop to 54 and change, only to return to 63 plus today......>> I would submit that Lucent, while a great stock, has been overvalued for some time. Perhaps because they are recognized for their great potential. Thanks for your discussion on currency trading, but I am a long term investor and try to avoid short term thinking. I took a position in Lucent about a year ago, so I am well in the money. I added a little at 74 during this decline (oops!) and will likely add more next week. I have accumulated about as much Lucent as I want, but when the market goes on sale, I have to take advantage. I look for stocks I can hold (profitably) forever -- or at least several years. I expect Lucent to be such a stock. Regards, Darrell