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To: Compadre who wrote (55157)	10/10/1998 1:54:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Jaime, Per text-book definitions a BEAR MARKET is a decline of 20% or more. Only a few of the indexes are above the 20% mark and almost all of the indexes have tested the 20% level including the DOW, SPX, OEX. Based on the DOWs highs of 9367, 20% would bring the DOW to 7493. Heres my point, I believe that it is hard to argue that we are not either in or near a bear market when the strong majority of stocks are below 20% correction. I am not aware of any bear market that reversed to the upside immediately, normally its several months to years. With that being said, we still have a long time where the market could recieve more negativity. In other words, the longer the negative period last (assuming that we remain sideways at these low levels), the the greater the probabiity that more negativity will arrive which could send the market lower. And in a bear market it will take more positive news to push the market up then negative news to push it down. 7000 may never be broken, and frankly I hope it doesnt, but the longer we stay sideways at these low levels the greater the probability of breaking 7000. So if we head straight to the 8500 range, well firstly we are no longer moving sideways and the chances of breaking 7000 is reduced dramatically. Seeya