To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (21083 ) 10/11/1998 5:21:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
Updated 09-Oct-98 Out With the New, In With the Old One of the few positives coming out of the market's recent performance is that we no longer hear anyone talking about the "new paradigm." In fact, analysts and media types are now obsessed with all things past. Comparisons to the bear markets of 1929-34, 1973-74 and 1987 are being made on a daily basis. It is only natural to try to find patterns in the past that will help guide investors through the minefields of today. But just as all the new paradigm talk was garbage, so to are most of the history lessons. We are dealing with a unique set of global dynamics and, as such, there is no way of telling for sure how the markets will behave over the next week, month or year. This uncertainty is what really troubles the market, as the first step toward resolving a complex problem is to simplify it. And the easiest way for investors to simplify the complexities of the worldwide financial crisis is to raise cash. Recent mutual fund data showing outflows from equity funds confirms that this is just what investors are doing. Fact that a number of the big investment firms have come out in the past few days and encouraged their clients to increase cash holdings suggests that the demand for stocks will remain relatively soft over the near-term. Our problem with this strategy is that it is being employed too late for most investors. Unfortunately, the time to have raised cash was months ago when the big Wall Street firms (Merrill excepted) were still singing the praises of the over-inflated market. To do so now, after the average stock is down by more than 30% from its 52-wk high, is like closing the barn door after the animals have left. As we noted above, we don't know for sure when the market will bottom or at what level. But what we do know is that nearly 80% of all NYSE stocks are more than 30% off of their highs already. In other words, we are far, far closer to the end of this bear move than the beginning. As such now is the time to be preparing your strategy for (re)entering the long-side. It is not the time for panic selling. Is there a risk of getting in too soon - before the market actually hits bottom? You bet there is, but successful investing in stocks is all about quantifying risks, and it is this writer's humble opinion that the risk/reward ratio is more favorable today that at anytime in the past couple of years. Transportation, financial, tech, healthcare, housing and automotive stocks are among those that have been drastically marked down by the sell-off despite generally solid long-term growth prospects. So if you're a long-term, growth oriented investor do yourself a favor and tune out the doomsayers who are now in vogue in the financial press. The fire sale taking place in the equity market is creating some very compelling long-term buying opportunities. It is always difficult to buy when the majority of investors are selling, but don't you wish you would have sold back in June when, despite numerous signs of trouble, the herd was still buying. In the stock market, taking the path least travelled is usually a rewarding course of action (in time). Robert Walberg, Chief Equity Analyst (bobw@briefing.com)