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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLINVESTOR who wrote (25168)	10/10/1998 7:35:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

KLINVESTOR: re: big vs. small caps: When I said there was 15% market risk still, I meant the S&P 500. For the small-caps, it's probably twice that. Until the market bottoms, which might not be till the next recession (mid-1999?) the great values in small-caps will just keep getting greater. Until then, bigger=safer, and safer=better. Applied has a track record of targeting new niches, and within 2-5 years, dominating them, through either acquisitions or (mostly) internal growth. Although they are not everywhere, they have a broader product range than anyone else. It's a lot like the way Microsoft kills small innovative software companies by bundling copycat applications into Windows. And prolonged downturns accelerate this winnowing-out process. In spite of the above: Of the time I spend studying semi-equips, 90% is spent trying to time the bottom, and only 10% choosing between companies. As far as investment returns, picking the bottom is a lot more important than picking the right company.