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To: John F. Dowd who wrote (66182)	10/10/1998 11:49:00 AM
From: Harvey Allen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John- I think the problem is nobody will have a job. This will cause certain complications with the economy. Harvey

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (66182)	10/10/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

John, You beat me to the punch with your response. The link Jules posted to the news in Australia was interesting. They appear more shook up than we are here. It is fascinating to me that one now has access to all these viewpoints thru the net. Lately - for every job lost in manufacturing ala Pratt & Whitney's announcement of yesterday, I'd guess that more than one infotech job is created if only because the web now exists and previously didn't. This is a great example of a technological change completely changing the composition of overall employment. I think some perspective is in order in the world view. I don't want to sound like an old fogey, but having watched the world scene closely for half a century now, I can tell you that from my perspective the entire nonsense of the last year is completely overblown and that in the long run, try the next ten to twenty years or so (and longer), this will be but a small blip in a long extended bull market. Technological advances and population demographics will make it so. Politics and economics will follow. Barry

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (66182)	10/10/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: Jules V	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Subject: "America seems to be alive and well...So where is the problem?" Ken Fisher agrees with you. However note that two of his seven reasons are in question after this week. Keep your eye on the dollar and bonds as well as stocks I guess. His point 6 is a good one about the size of the developed economies compared to the others. OK but I am seeing our industries oil, oil services, lumber, pulp and paper, gold, steel, nickel, apples, liquor, golf clubs, heavy equipment, engineering, airlines, aircraft, autos, ports, semiconductors - demand dry up or in oversupply - you really think we escape? They say entertainment and services will save the day. OK but I hope things turn around soon. Abby tell me it ain't so!! forbes.com Don't let 'em scare you out of stocks LAST ISSUE I said I thought we had a correction, not a bear market. I still think so. Here are my reasons: First: It's rare that bear markets start out with a big break like the one we've had. They usually begin gently to lull people into complacency. Second: The U.S. bond market is strong and interest rates are benign. Most bear markets are preceded by a nice long period of either rising short-term interest rates, rising long-term rates or both. Third: In the past when bear markets began without rising interest rates, the dollar was weak. The dollar has been strong. Bear markets rarely develop when there is lots of liquidity around. And there is now, because the Federal Reserve is creating lots of it by printing money aggressively. Even more liquidity is coming here from overseas where the dollar is strong. Fourth: Recall history and my "third-year-of-a-President's term" rule, showing how 1999 should be a good year (see my May 4 column). Bear markets generally take a long time, and there isn't time for one between now and a good 1999 market. Fifth: All the media talk is similar to what we've heard for almost a year now. Asia. Now Latin America and Russia. Monica. High P/Es. All old. As I wrote on Mar. 13, 1995, in one of my alltime favorite columns, old and widely circulated arguments lose their power. As I said: "Bearishness may yet be vindicated, but you will need new fuel to justify it." Sixth: People have a hard time fathoming how big the economies are in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan. And how small everything else is. In the rest of the world there are many bodies and little economies. If you take all those countries and aggregate their real international trade, Russia and China included, it looks like several dozen major U.S. firms. A major downdraft in all those places at once would look about like a major industrial sector rotation here (of which we've had many over the decades). It would likely cause the Fed to cut interest rates early next year, and we would move on. Shy of a Russian revolution that put nuclear weapons into the hands of whackos, there really isn't a there there. Seventh: Politics look good. The elections now seem assured of providing us more gridlock. Bullish. So don't let the correction scare you out of stocks. Use it as an opportunity to buy stellar European firms like...