Just take a look at last October/November stock prices and today's <gggg> Wath happened in between is irelevent <gggg>
Well, that is precisely my point....
Look at OCT/NOV of 1997 or 1996...he, he, he...
Last two weeks or so.... the price of LU became far more reasonable, and so when everyone cries sell.... it is the time to buy.... is that dogma ? of course, not it depends on the stock, but again, if you are going to trade/speculate, rather than invest, all of this discussion is irrelevant.
If you are going to invest, then good quality companies and a stable currency (That is always relative), should be looked at.
Indeed, who cares what is in between.
The fundamentals have not changed, we are making a big transition from isolated economies to integrated "global economy", and basic infrastructures are needed,... no correct that...badly needed, in many countries, and Lucent provides all this, (plus it has patents, and lots of money to buy others.)
Many of the current turmoil have been caused by the clashes of two cultures:
On one side, you have these "Quants" i.e. Derivative traders applying rocket science equations attempting to figure out (and even eliminate/reduce the element of risk) of the markets, and under such assumption they think the are gods of risk, by thinking so, they enlarge it by leveraging big time.
For a while it seems to work.
On the other hand, you have corrupted banana republics, officials sucking resources (into their own pockets), that otherwise would be placed to better use.
End result, their economies falter, too much debt, not enough to pay it with. The bet explodes.
The Quants say that the theory of chaos can assess/calculate such things as the element of human behavior into the bet.... yeah right...I wonder why LTCM is bankrupt....
Then you find out that the Central Bank of Italy is on the hook with LTCM at the tune of $100 Million in investment capital, and another $150 Million in loan extended to the same outfit....
HA HA HA HA, Forza Italia !!! Bravo Azzurri !!!!
Some Italians are going to be pretty p/o when they realize that their AG equivalent is in the hole at the glorious tune of $250 Million....
And Uncle Pietroantonio.... those are Dollars, not Lira.!!!
Do you think it is possible that some of these officials really understand what the Quants are doing.... remember the city of Santa Monica back in the Mexican Devaluation of 194/95 ? They went belly up, just because the interest rates went the other way, to the general bet... oooooops !
I do not pretend to know the first thing about Chaos theory and the math these Quants are using to do that. I do not, I am just trying to illustrate a point.
Personally I think they are nuts!, but hey I am just a plebian.
So there are many smarter people than me, who "Invest for the long haul" <gggg>.
Just ask Uncle Warren, he, he, he.....
The key is buy LU at 54, 60, whatever.....
As for the currency.... well, that depends on objectives (again), and what are you going to do with your money....
Yes Dollar is down right now, and it may continue to go down, it depends on what policies our glorious Bureaucrat decide to follow, and if they decide to "collude", or do some "concerted price controls" for the USD, that will be the result....
Microsoft is in court for similar reasons. I wonder why the Anti-trust act does not apply to Central Banks.... oh I guess, they are looking out for "the good of the world community".
As they say...
"Don't steal, the government do not like competition".
Meanwhile back at the ranch..... I still think LU is a good bet...
I enjoy the discussion, but I must go do other stuff....
Best regards.
Z. |
