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To: stak who wrote (36627)	10/10/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: John Rieman	Respond to of 50808

China's DVD developers meet in Shanghai........................... techweb.com October 12, 1998, Issue: 1030 Section: News -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Chinese DVD Developers Convene China's software developers and video-player makers will meet in Shanghai today to discuss greater cooperation on DVD content development. The group will examine how to integrate the DVD hardware and software sectors, government policies for promoting China's content development efforts and how hardware manufacturers can boost the software industry. Copyright ® 1998 CMP Media Inc.

To: stak who wrote (36627)	10/10/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: Tim McCormick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

I don't know about rarebird, but I'll comment- First: It's rare that bear markets start out with a big break like the one we've had. They usually begin gently to lull people into complacency. -This bear did begin gently in April when the Russell 2000 rolled over with the A/D line. Judging a market by capitalization weighted indeces only is stupid. Second: The U.S. bond market is strong and interest rates are benign. Most bear markets are preceded by a nice long period of either rising short-term interest rates, rising long-term rates or both. -The worst bear markets involve deflation, look at Japan for the last 10 years. Third: In the past when bear markets began without rising interest rates, the dollar was weak. The dollar has been strong. Bear markets rarely develop when there is lots of liquidity around. And there is now, because the Federal Reserve is creating lots of it by printing money aggressively. Even more liquidity is coming here from overseas where the dollar is strong -Ha, the dollar just had its largest two day drop in modern history. Fourth: Recall history and my "third-year-of-a-President's term" rule, showing how 1999 should be a good year (see my May 4 column). Bear markets generally take a long time, and there isn't time for one between now and a good 1999 market. -There is if it crashes this year, Oh, and what happens with impeachment or resignation? Fifth: All the media talk is similar to what we've heard for almost a year now. Asia. Now Latin America and Russia. Monica. High P/Es. All old. As I wrote on Mar. 13, 1995, in one of my alltime favorite columns, old and widely circulated arguments lose their power. As I said: "Bearishness may yet be vindicated, but you will need new fuel to justify it." -Worldwide deppression sounds like good fuel to me. Besides, how many NASDAQ stocks are now trading at 1995 levels? Sixth: People have a hard time fathoming how big the economies are in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan. And how small everything else is.....(snip) -Japan? Did he say Japan? Japan has a one TRILLION dollar banking problem, how much of world GDP is that? Seventh: Politics look good. The elections now seem assured of providing us more gridlock. Bullish. -What is this guy smoking? Gridlock is bullish only when there is no world crises to handle. -I could have made a much better bullish argument than this. But I won't, because it would be an exercise of intellectual dishonesty. Yet, keep in mind, it is a market of stocks and any business can swim against the tide and succeed. Tim