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To: HairBall who wrote (55211)	10/11/1998 7:48:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

LG, When I connect the peaks, using yr dates of 7/20 and 9/29, the upper trendline projects to 7900 for MONDAY, when you are saying it is at 8075. Could you be using a LOG chart? Breaking the upper trendline to the upside is a bullish technical signal but not conclusive. I believe the key is still that most of the indexes set lower lows or new lows, which would overcome the bullishness of breaking the upper trendline, assuming that the DOW breaks 7900 tomorrow to the upside. Untill the DOW breaks 8182(8252), it will still be LOWER HIGHS. Recently the breaking of the upper trendline has not been that good of a bullish signal, and has failed since 7/20 on more than one occassion using shorter time periods. For example, draw the vector connecting the highs of 7/20 & 7/31, and it is clear that such trendline was broken to the upside at the end of AUG, only for the market to make a big drop about a week later. I am not saying that breaking a trendline is not important, but what is its relative importance to other technical signals. Right now I feel that the NEW LOWS/LOWER LOWs is more important than breaking the trendline tothe upside, but if the market takes off, then I will be wrong with that conclusion and my TA goofed. Untill 8150 is broken to the upside this market should reverse strongly producing lower lows. By the way for the OEX and SPX to set corresponding HIGHER HIGHS, they would need to get to 517 & 1066 respectively(517 & 1066 occured on 9/24 when the DOW hit the peak at 8182). Im sure you have noticed the strong downward divergence of the OEX/SPX from the DOW. seeya