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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph G. who wrote (31210)	10/10/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hey guys leave Fleck alone, who was holding MOT or HWP since 94 or MU?? Or DEC since 1987 ?? how much better are they?? and the list goes on. In any case who was DELL or CSCO in 1990?? How many similar companies went bust??? Stocks and stock markets are a gamble, that is why index funds are more successful than the ordinary fund over the longer term. Sector and other funds are there only because of the GREED factor and some times one performs better than the rest. Fidelity's Magellan is the equivalent of an index/asset allocation fund for example therefore their steady performance. BWDIK Haim

To: Joseph G. who wrote (31210)	10/12/1998 6:13:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

>>>It is his job to be short <<< So your point is that the Fleck's opinion of the market is of little value to anyone other than those who find it necessary to be 100% short, all the time? I agree. Vitas

To: Joseph G. who wrote (31210)	10/12/1998 8:31:00 PM
From: BubbaFred	Respond to of 94695

Short specialists are extremely tough and disciplined bunch. They studied companies to death and they know problems with the companies that no one else knows. They work much more diligently than the buy-bye specialists. They take nothing for granted and peruse (analyse/scrutinize/confirm) almost every cent in the financial statements. My guess is that they are 90% correct, although their timing is suspect. I have a lot of respect for those people because I know how much time and effort they have to go through to determine stocks worthy to be shorted. I visit several companies each year and check out their health, etc., vis-a-vis part of a short specialist's research work. As an example, I found one company that was definitely in trouble. I posted what I found in the that stock's SI thread (timidly and reluctantly). I was outnumbered 10:1 by the die hard believers. I suspect some of those posters were affiliated with the company and posted hopeful stories. It was amazing to see how many people actually refused to bail out and continued to hold until the end. Needless to say, that company went bankrupt, actually was bought out by another worthless company. One lesson learned was that the stock price did not slide all the way down all at once. It took 9 months to slide down from the $30's to zilch, and yet there were many trading opportunities, each bounce was good for 15 to 35%. Used FA to complement the common sense and use TA for timing. That 9 months saga taught me that hopes and gropes, though irrational, are very powerful emotional force that drive the market up, or can keep stocks prices at levels way above their realistic value. And greed once took it all the way up to the mid 30's. That's why the market can keep going up for 8 months and then lose all those gains in 2 weeks.