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To: michael r potter who wrote (1774)	10/11/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: David Lawrence	Respond to of 4467

That's a pretty decent analysis, Mike. The stock market, after an explosive relief rally beginning in November '98 turns lower as '99 progresses. Y2K concerns mount as the date looms near. The good news is that many stocks are already discounting the above scenario in the crash that has cut them to 1/4 of their former prices. Many of the large cap. stocks have not discounted '99. I believe we are very close the seeing the relief rally. I see it as an excellent opportunity to sell into strength on positions that have been decimated in the vicious bear market we've seen. By the end of the first quarter, perhaps sooner, I'd like to be mostly in cash, holding only "core" positions in consumer non-cyclical companies such as the major drug houses (people always spend on health care, food, and shelter), and other cyclical stocks they are deeply depressed but multi-baggers for the long term, such as energy. As Y2k draws closer, I see more money leaving equities and chasing the safety of bonds - the yield will drop whether the Fed wants it to or not. Even so, I'm not willing to commit to long term bonds - too much risk of an inverted yield curve and capital loss when rates reverse from these historically low levels. I'd rather give up some yield now and eliminate the risk of getting squeezed later. Come Y2k, cash will be king, IMHO.