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To: Sig who wrote (71296)	10/11/1998 1:55:00 AM
From: Dr. David Gleitman	Respond to of 176387

OT: To all: Does anyone have any opinions regarding the Elliot Wave? David PS: Picked up some more at 49.25

To: Sig who wrote (71296)	10/11/1998 2:08:00 AM
From: nihil	Respond to of 176387

RE: "Ask any two economists and get three opinions" That is an old one. One of the economists was Mr. Keynes who could be counted on to provide two answers. But my point is that it isn't really true any more. The policy makers are surrounded by herds of economists from many different backgrounds and actions (like open market purchase directives at the FOMC) are always by near-concensus. A seriously split vote would be scandalous and dissidents could not survive long. Changes in policy are usually sudden -- every one moves over, and not as a result of one-by-one shifts from the old majority to the new majority. People who don't go with the pro-tem majority are labeled cranks unless they are always right and have always been right. Since dissidents were always members of the old majority, they can never show they have always been right. We'll see when the minutes of the last FOMC are released in November. I doubt if more than one member opposed the rate cut at all, and more than one ultimately voted against it and for a 50 basis point cut. The appearance of unanimity is critical. Its like Intel management decision making -- challenge and commit. Independent economic consultants learn they have two choices if they want to make a living: (1) agree with all other economists all of the time, or (2) never be wrong. (1) is much easier than (2). Eventually everyone gets on board or gets out. The real problem is everyone deciding when it is right to move. Impossible that it be before the event, but sometimes the herd can move very swiftly to catch up.