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To: Rarebird who wrote (36635)10/11/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: stak  Respond to of 50808
 
rarebird,
> Essentially investors were crowding into the fewer and
fewer stocks which continue to rise, thus bloating their values well beyond what is justified by these companies profits <<

yes and that feeling of invincibilty is going to make the safe harbor stocks very painful for the retail investor once ...

>One interesting parallel between 1973 and 1998 is that in both instances there were virtually the same tiny number of issues which were continuing to show technical strength.<

absolutely! one difference though is that in 73 it was out of greed and now it is more out of fear(looking for safe harbor).

>One notable difference is that today's " Nifty Fifty " are showing an average P/E Ratio which is 50% higher than at the inflated 1973 peak, suggesting that these large-cap beloved brand names are almost certain to lose about 90% of their value over the next decade after adjusting for inflation.<

ouch that's gotta hurt.you mean that even with the demographics of baby boomers pouring into mutuals, we'll still see a massive drop in capitalization in the mighty tech stocks?

> A New Bull Market will be in place when we see advances beat declines by more than a 2:1 ratio for a period of two weeks.<
let us know if you see a turnaround in this ratio.

stak



To: Rarebird who wrote (36635)10/11/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Spider Valdez  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50808
 
rarebird i respect what you post but i still think market is bullish. we know corrections will come. we now see expected reducing of prime interest rate again. greenspan is who we look to not president. i bet you we see dow 9000 before dow 7000. you are right about certain sectors but investment total market , index, spiders, is bullish imo.
we had gift horse time to cover short positions in net stocks or stocks in these sectors we boxed. now i think investment strategy should be total market. i covered many shorts during corrections and go long on many i feel will rebound.
spider



To: Rarebird who wrote (36635)10/21/1998 7:49:00 AM
From: Helios  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50808
 
"The Bull Market Has Ended"

Hey Rarebird - the S&P500 is up over 8% since your pronouncement on Oct. 11. Pretty good lesson in market timing I would say.