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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (3987)	10/11/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: TRIIBoy	Respond to of 18998

Does the T-bond retracement back above 5%, relieve some pressure of mortgage companies? What scenario would have to happen for these companies to survive or to make it out smelling like roses? Could it happen in a matter of weeks or have too many people been burned?

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (3987)	10/11/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18998

Hi, Mr. Pink. Ups, a nice discussion on ABTX has been incinerated lately, but I enjoy the reading. I am waiting for the REXI effect here, a stock price movement which should take out my "GTC ladder" pretty soon. Other picks. CLR was brought as speculative long earlier and You nodded. So I went into their last 10k and subsequent corporate announcements about their book value. They state that they had $16 book value per E8/1998 along with the information that 97% of the assets being valued mark to market, and according to their initial 10Q they are roughly 60% leveraged with T repos. Given the September market action in T Futures they may have lost another 3 or 4 bucks in book since, depending on the duration of the underlying short T's. As the T bubble is already bursting, at least they should keep their book in the $12 range along with null or little earnings. Their actual 10Q will be bloody, though. CLR claims that they have not experienced any delinquencies so far, so with receiving interest and the slowly improving repo debt side,they seem to be a bit cheap in the $3 range and good for valuation near book. What do You think? Is it a bit too early, still. I see it into the light that - as mentioned in the indymac case, other REITs won't survive a mark to market of their portfolio, ie have NAV of zero or less. thank you C.

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (3987)	10/11/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: andrew krull	Respond to of 18998

Mr. Pink: Yield curve getting curvacous! Do you buy the hedge fund unwinding positions-flight to cash story or are we seeing a new rate cut in the near future? Either way sub-prime junk will not find a home easily. Shorted ACF Friday. Also shorted PVN at 46, lousy fill. Will consider increase in PVN position, 8X book! Will you cover FP? Short: FP, REXI, MSTR, ACF, PVN and TNSI. Long: FA, CFWY, AXR, LNCC and AGX. Andrew