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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (7059)	10/11/1998 4:35:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Greg, the benefits to the rim countries of a strong yen are limited. H-K is pegged to the dollar, and now so is Malaysia. Indonesia's currencies has been recovering from about 14,500 all the way under 10,000 so it is only the Korean Won and possibly Thailand which could benefit. However, none of these will unless consumption in Japan turns around. I still do not see that happening soon (now Japan is starting to hint that fiscal 2000 will also witness negative GDP "growth"). FRankly, I think that once the current players in the carry trade are finished "unwinding" their positions, we will find that they simply transferred these to a new generation of carry trade players. The carry trade even at 4.5% on the long term treasuries (and we are not there yet) is too good to pass with the dollar in the range of 115 to 120 yen/dollar (VBG). I would guess that within 3 months the dollar will once more gravitate to the high 120' yen/dollar until the next "confidence" crisis in Japan hit and gets the dollar again above the 135 yen/dollar regime, IMHO. Zeev