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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Angell who wrote (30613)	10/12/1998 12:31:00 AM
From: The Gambler	Respond to of 95453

Paul, I appreciate your educated comment on Teddy's note, this is the sort of opinions that I need from you guys to help me make a good judgment as to when to add my exposure to this sector. I thought I may said something related to things you said. >>The beginnings of recovery are emerging in the ASEAN countries << I am not aware of this except what is being reported in the news regarding Thailand. Beside Thailand, I think the rest of ASEAN countries are still in deep economic trouble. Indonesia is facing a dire economic problem, with approximately 40% of the population not being able to make basic food purchases. >>There are a lot of concerns that there is not enough drilling taking place.<< This is of course a huge concern, but unless the oil price started turning around I doubt that we will see much more exploration activities >>You cannot wait for it to happen to start buying oil stocks if you want to maximize your returns.<< I basically agree on this. You can't get the exact low price, but if your purchase is 50% lower 3 1/2 months down the road and you have averaged down along the way, the question is where is the turning point. I agree that oil demand will pick up, I am just trying to pick RIG at a price that is not too far from the bottom.

To: Paul Angell who wrote (30613)	10/12/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: Fredman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Oils are long term Investments. It kills me to see people trying to find 'where the absolute bottom is so i can buy in and be 100% assured i will not lose a penny'. Who knows where the bottom is ? Who knows what 'The BEST' company is to buy TODAY ? But when you see companies that were 36/share going for 9, heck pretty much all of them going for 20-30% of what they were last summer (1997), even assuming they were 20-25% overpriced back then, that still leaves a HUGE opportunity for growth here. Even if you buy in at 9, and it drops to 4, eventually it should (yes - 'should') get back to 20-24 or more at least. Oils will double or triple before CSCO LU or MSFT will, IMHO. p.s. where does MRL fit in your technical analysis of debt/asset ratios ??

To: Paul Angell who wrote (30613)	10/12/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: RGinPG	Respond to of 95453

After the last year I would say forget TA and forget FA. How can FA be meaningful when the numbers the analysts give us can change so drastically in such a short period of time (after, I might add, the stock price has already fallen drastically). So what is an investor to do? You've got to believe in something. Hanging on for the long term is fine, but who can do that and just watch your stocks fall to 1/4th their value? The reality is, both TA and FA are important. FA is absolutely necessary to help us single out those sectors and companies with the most potential for growth (and appreciation of stock price). But TA keeps us in reality. If the stock is falling through all kinds of support, the FA has got to be wrong. The market is always smarter than the analysts. osxstocks.com