To: Spider Valdez who wrote (126 ) 10/11/1998 10:14:00 PM From: Spider Valdez Respond to of 182
> Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations: Raid Time > By James J. Cramer > 8/26/98 8:52 AM ET > > Raid!!!!!!!!!! > > Yes, it is that time again, when stocks go down and then go down some more on > rumors and reports that may or may not be true, but are so damning that who > cares. > > Tuesday's raid was on Resource America (REXI:Nasdaq), one of these specialty > lenders that had been so hot up until a few weeks ago. > > I know the folks at Resource. Anybody who is in Philadelphia and in finance > knows them. They are totally honorable people who work at an interesting but > boring niche of workout loans in real estate. They are pros. Doesn't make me > want to own their stock, but the people behind this company are the same as > the people behind Jefferson Bank (JEFF:Nasdaq), and they have made a ton of > money for themselves and others over the years. (Jeff is the largest > independent bank left in Philly.) > > No matter. We are back in 1990 again, when there used to be reports galore > that financial companies were in trouble. By the time the answers were > ferreted out and the bodies reburied, it was too late and fortunes had been > lost. This time some outfit out of Boston did a slam job on REXI and the stock > fell as if it were pushed from Billy Penn's Hat, or whatever else passes for a > tall building in the Philly skyline these days. Despite heated denials and > conference calls and calls to Joe Kernen, REXI became Humpty Dumpty. (At one > point I heard REXI being castigated for making risky Far East Asian loans. > Heck, Far East to Resource is Camden!) > > I wanted to tell the good people at REXI not to waste their time defending > themselves, that this is the tape we are in, kind of like when Hyman Roth > tells Michael Corleone "this is the business we have chosen." There is not > much anyone sane can do about it, as big money is being made right now > "raiding" and "operating" on stocks to the downside and REXI was yesterday's > snare. > > We saw this pattern quite vividly in 1990, which remains my analogue until > proven innocent. Word would come out that a negative report on National > Community Bankshares of Rutherford, N.J., showed that the company was > bankrupt. No matter that insiders were buying and it was in talks to be > acquired for three times the price, this was money in the bank, and the shorts > would go to town burying the stock for all sorts of vile untrue "reasons." > Denials would come, but the stigma would remain and NCBR would vanish to > oblivion for a few days -- just long enough to bring in the short. And then it > would be on to the next bad name. > > This period lasted for about seven months. It was a period where, by the end > of it, you had to shoot as soon as you heard a whiff of a bad story, and > marvel that the thing that kept you in the game was your speed! Not your > intellect. > > The period ended when the bears started ganging up on companies like Wachovia > Bank (WB:NYSE), which had done nothing wrong, and like the Army in the Army- > McCarthy hearings, could stand up for itself and embarrass the bears by asking > if they had any shame. (I have written about the denouement of this period > before.) > > We aren't in that phase yet. Heck, we just started this stuff, can't expect it > to end just like that. More pain must be visited before we can say adieu to > this era. > > Be careful out there. >>