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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (7113)	10/12/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason, In regards to your comments: IMHO - when the problems in Asia really started was the time to get out and stay out of this sector, before the market reacted. As far as I can tell, the recovery in Japan has started, and it's time to get in and stay in: Yet you said also that you have no position in this industry yet. What gives? The next bull move will begin when enough people feel the same way you do – positive, yet petrified. Other than the aversion to losing money, what are the reasons you are not buying? -Robert

To: Mason Barge who wrote (7113)	10/13/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Dollar's dive boosts world prospects By Tony Boyd, Tokyo The collapse of the US dollar against the yen is producing such big benefits for Brazil, China, ASEAN and world commodities markets that it may be a panacea for the economic crisis. The series of wins from the sharp realignment adds weight to the theory that it was planned by the US and Japan, albeit accentuated dramatically by hedge-fund selling. "This devaluation is one of the best events that has happened in a very miserable 15 months for the world, policy-making wise, and it gives the world a fighting chance to stave off a recession," said Mr Jim O'Neill, chief currency strategist at Goldman Sachs. "I can understand why people say it happened due to a deal between the US and Japan, because the over- valuation and excessive strength of the dollar was increasingly the main problem of the world economy. "But whether it was changed by deliberate design or market forces is a much more contentious matter." Mr O'Neill said that assuming the dollar did not start going up again, Asia, other than Japan, would benefit dramatically, particularly Korea and Taiwan which would experience trade gains in third markets. Mr Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, said in a daily commentary yesterday that there was a silver lining in the dramatic weakening of the dollar. "Significantly, the strengthening of the yen neutralises one of the most destabilising forces threatening world financial markets – the risk of a new round of competitive currency devaluations," he said. If the yen had been allowed to weaken further, the renminbi and Hong Kong peg would have been in danger of falling, triggering a new contagion in Asia. In the past two days, the premiums in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market in renminbi have eased substantially and the value of the dollar in China's domestic black market has fallen. Another big winner is Brazil, which has been facing the threat of a devaluation. Morgan Stanley has calculated that the decline in the dollar is tantamount to a drop of at least 8 per cent in the Brazilian real, thereby pre-empting a significant portion of the devaluation markets were prepared to deliver. "A weaker dollar is also a decided plus for battered commodity markets," Mr Roach said. "In large part, that's because more than 90 per cent of all commodities are traded in dollar-denominated terms." A potential strengthening in commodity prices will come as welcome relief to the beleaguered commodity-producing nations of Asia, Latin America, Canada and Australia. Mr Roach said a stronger yen could force Japan to take bold policy actions and force a restructure of corporate Japan, which was let off the hook when the yen rose from ¥80 to the US dollar to near ¥150. Mr Nebuya Nemoto, economist at Citigroup Trust in Tokyo, said that while a stronger yen took pressure off China and other Asian currencies, the only two conditions that justified a premium status for the yen were either a Wall Street crash or pumping huge amounts of public money into the Japanese banking system. He said the most appropriate target for the yen was 140 to the $US, and he expected that to happen within six months. Sharemarket investors initially took a negative view of the yen strengthening because of its impact on exporters. But Mr Susumu Kato, chief economist at Barclays Capital, said Japanese exporters could make profits at between ¥115 and ¥120 to the $US. Yesterday the currency was trading at ¥119 to the US dollar. Mr Kato said he expected it to settle around ¥120. "The impact of the latest moves in world currency markets really depend on the situation in each domestic economy," he said. "On balance I think a weaker yen will be better for Japan, but there is no doubt that from a global economy point of view the weakness in the US dollar will ease tensions in emerging market economies." • Bonds aye! Rally surprises investors • Portfolio: Hedge fund 'dummies' pay price afr.com.au