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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Judy who wrote (1156)10/12/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: Wallace Rivers  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 43080
 
Please, no one take offense on what appears to be almost a bulletin board stock (although it trades Naz small cap). If you look at past price history on the stock, it traded much higher in a "former life". The ticker on the stock is ANDA, and I will give you what I perceive to be both the pros and cons, comments on which are most welcome. I am long the stock.
Cons:
1) Thin, thin, thin, although better volume today. Very thin float.
2) No research coverage.
3) Minimal or zero earnings. Recent shakeup in middle to upper management ranks.
Pros:
1) Excellent (IMHO) product line in the data storage market.
2) Heavy mgmt. incentive to improve bottom line results (i.e. heavy insider ownership). Principal owner has recently taken significantly more responsibility in day to day operations, primarily in his area of expertise, marketing.
3) Friday announcement of relationship with advisory group. It is my understanding that this advisory group has been successful in the past in endeavours such as this, and one of the primary goals is to get more shares in the public float, and, hopefully, more sponsorship. I have been told that ideally this will be done in such a manner that will be accretive to current shareholders.
Please don't take my word for it, do your own DD, make some calls, and please give me your opinions on this stock and its prospects.



To: Judy who wrote (1156)10/12/1998 4:58:00 PM
From: LastShadow  Respond to of 43080
 
On Gaps:

There are a lot more ways to play the gaps then i posted earlier, but to get into the nuances of all of them was a little beyond what I felt was initially absorbable (is that a word?) by the general thread. Leland pm'd me a good question, though, about when I decide wheteher to use full or modified gaps, or, as in the case of AMAT, something even tighter.

I decide based on the size of the gap and the volatility of the market and the trading volume. AMAT was rising too fast and therefore I just watched for the selloff and went with it...not a published method. The bigger the gap and the faster the rise, the more the downside, so therefore use the modified instead of the full gap. The slower the movement, the more likely to use full gap. Also, I make the best playsd when the gap plays are also position holds. If my TA and net analysis says its going to move, and it gaps big, I immediatly set the stops. Although I have noticed a predisposition to set short stops lately rather than buy stops, it works especially well after a major decline, as in the case of CMGI.

One caveat is to not play a stock you are not familiar with. After looking at CMGI last week, I ran several hours of analysis and backtests to determine if I understood it well enough to play it. Just having a stop gap isn't even interesting to me if I don't follow it (for example, DELL, which I don't know well enough to play anything other than a full gap strategy). If you are real familiar with how a stock moves and understand the gap, having paper andthen real traded it, like JayLyons did, then you can move to modifiedd gaps.

Trying more complex/quicker reaction methods requires an assimilation of the stock, the method, the market movement and an eye on the volume and sector responses. And even then you could be wrong...trust me, I know...

lastshadow