Bin Laden Likely to Strike Soon in Asia
At a news conference in Delhi on October 10, the leader of the
regional All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Khazagham (AIADMK),
Jayaram Jayalalitha, warned that some 200 Afghan-trained
supporters of Osama Bin Laden were "roaming" in Tamil Nadu and
other southern Indian states. Jayalalitha claimed that Bin
Laden's agents might have been responsible for bombings in the
city of Coimbatore on the eve of parliamentary elections, earlier
this year. She said that suspicions that Bin Laden may be active
in India were reinforced following the recent arrest and
interrogation of a Moslem terrorist in Hyderabad. The prisoner
reportedly confessed that he had received six months' training in
Afghanistan, and that Bin Laden himself had been in Hyderabad
recently. Jayalalitha, a close ally of Indian Prime Minister
Atal Behari Vajpayee, also issued a statement on October 7,
declaring her distress over the central government's dismissal of
reports that Bin Laden had dispatched hundreds of Arab and Afghan
mercenaries to Kashmir and other parts of India.
While the idea that Bin Laden would leave the relative safety of
his Afghan refuge to visit central India while an international
manhunt for him was underway is questionable, the idea that he
could be moving assets into India is not. Afghanistan's Taleban
provide what is perhaps the last sanctuary for Bin Laden. The
Taleban, in turn, were created by and are dependent on, Pakistan.
Bin Laden is, therefore, at least indirectly answerable to
Pakistan. That is not to say that Pakistan has played a role in
Bin Laden's terrorist activities to date, but with Pakistan and
Afghanistan both feeling the heat for Bin Laden's terrorist
adventures, he must be careful to "pay his rent." For Pakistan,
this means assisting in its long-running feud with India over the
Kashmir.
As such, Moslem militants trained by the Taleban and, allegedly,
by Bin Laden have begun to appear in the disputed Kashmir and in
China's Xinjiang region
(www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/100898.html).
As Bin Laden begins to recover, not from the U.S. missile
attacks, but from the damage done to his operations by the
capture and interrogation of several of his associates, the
question is, where will he strike next? His operational foray
into India, with Pakistani blessings, provides not only a new set
of targets but also a new jumping-off point for actions in Asia
and beyond.
Following the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and
Tanzania, the United States launched a massive campaign to expose
and destroy Bin Laden's terrorist network and, if possible, to
capture Bin Laden himself. While Bin Laden has remained safely
hidden in Afghanistan, his network has not fared so well, with a
series of captured members of his group and other sources
providing a detailed picture of his global operations. This
campaign, more than any missile attack, has kept Bin Laden from
launching additional terrorist attacks. Now that he has had time
to assess the damage to his network, Bin Laden will attempt to
retaliate for U.S. efforts against him. For several reasons, we
believe Bin Laden's next attacks will be focused on Asia.
To begin with, while it has been partially exposed, Bin Laden
already has a network in Southeast Asia. He has followers in
Malaysia, where he also banks a portion of his money, and in the
Philippines, where he finances the Abu Sayyaf terrorist
organization and other Moslem militant groups both directly and
through Islamic charitable associations. According to a U.S.
case against Mamdouh Mahmud Salim--a founder, financial manager,
and weapons procurer for Bin Laden's "Al Qaeda" organization--as
early as 1990 Salim met with members of Al Qaeda in a number of
countries, including Malaysia and the Philippines, to "engage in
financial transactions for the benefit of Al Qaeda and its
affiliated groups."
According to a former Sudanese military intelligence agent, Bin
Laden provided training for Filipino terrorists at camps in
Sudan. While he was in Sudan, Bin Laden formed an "advisory
council" of representatives from 43 Moslem militant groups,
including the Philippines' Moro Liberation Front. Abu Sayyaf, a
Filipino Moslem terrorist organization sponsored by Bin Laden,
has recently stepped up activity, carrying out a series of
kidnappings of foreigners in the southern Philippines. In
September, members of Abu Sayyaf reportedly infiltrated Manila,
where they may have been planning to attack the U.S. embassy.
Additionally, Bin Laden previously planned to blow up several
American passenger jets over the Pacific, in an operation that
was to have been based in the Philippines.
Bin Laden also reportedly has three businesses in Philippines.
His international business holdings provide his organization with
revenue, as well as with cover for terrorist activities. Bin
Laden used a fish business he established in Mombassa, Kenya, as
cover during the planning of the embassy bombings in Africa.
Finally, according to one report out of the Philippines, one of
Bin Laden's wives is a Muslim Filipina, and Bin Laden
occasionally visits the Philippines. Moslem rebel leaders deny
this allegation, and claim that it is Bin Laden's brother-in-law,
Mohamad Jamal Khalifa, who frequently visits Mindanao. They
claim that Khalifa, one of whose wives is a Filipina, is a
philanthropist, financing mosques and charitable organizations.
Filipino authorities claim that Khalifa uses his charitable work
as a front for financing local and international Moslem
extremists, a technique Bin Laden has been charged with as well.
Bin Laden's established network is only one avenue for his
increased presence in Asia. Moslem groups in Malaysia,
Indonesia, and other countries in the region also offer him the
opportunity for building new networks. In Malaysia, where Bin
Laden already has some contacts, Moslem groups are supporting
former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's calls for Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad to step down. As the court case
against the arrested Anwar progresses, this increasingly vocal
faction offers fertile ground for Bin Laden to develop his
network. In Indonesia, Moslem groups are active among the
opposition forces that have vowed to bring down President B.J.
Habibie within 40 days. There, too, Bin Laden has hope for
recruits to his movement. New followers from India, Indonesia,
Malaysia, and other countries have the advantage of not being
exposed in the recent intelligence-gathering operation against
Bin Laden.
As Malaysia and Indonesia sink into social and political chaos,
they also offer a wealth of targets to Bin Laden's terrorists.
One of the reasons Bin Laden targeted the U.S. embassies in Kenya
and Tanzania was that the security situation in those countries
was lax. While the security apparatus in Indonesia and Malaysia
is fully active, it has much more to deal with than rumors of
possible attacks on U.S. diplomatic and business facilities.
Then there is the upcoming visit of U.S. President Bill Clinton
to the summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
forum in Kuala Lumpur in November. Bin Laden allegedly planned
to assassinate Clinton when he attended the APEC summit in the
Philippines in 1996. He has every reason to try again this time.
Bin Laden has evaluated the damage done to his network by U.S.
intelligence efforts, and is ready for another action. Secretary
of Defense William Cohen announced October 10 that a "number of
terrorist attacks" have been planned against U.S. interests
abroad, and that U.S. embassies around the world will remain on
alert. We do not doubt this, and add that we believe the odds of
that action taking place in Asia are high. The threat of
terrorist action against U.S. interests in the Philippines, where
Bin Laden already had an established network, is growing daily.
Danger to U.S. interests in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other
Southeast Asian nations with sizeable Moslem populations will
grow as the political situation in those countries deteriorates
and Bin Laden pushes forward with recruiting among those
countries' disaffected Moslem organizations.
One factor that could affect the timetable of Bin Laden's
activities is the possibility that he may have worn out his
welcome in Afghanistan. The Taleban have offered to try Bin
Laden for the bombing of the Khobar Towers in Dhahran, provided
families of the Saudi victims request it. This overture is an
attempt to patch up relations with Riyadh, which recently severed
diplomatic ties with the Taleban. Pakistan, too, is feeling
pressure to do something about both Bin Laden and the Taleban.
While Islamabad helped found and still sponsors the Taleban,
there is a growing threat of a Taleban-inspired fundamentalist
uprising in Pakistan. Finally, the U.S. has announced that more
missile strikes may be forthcoming against Bin Laden. Bin
Laden's response to this pressure is unclear. He may attempt to
find alternative sanctuary, which could delay his plans somewhat.
Or, feeling that there is no escape, he may attempt to launch a
new campaign as soon as possible. Either way, U.S. businesses in
Asia, and particularly in the Philippines, should remain on
heightened alert and take every possible security measure for the
forseeable future.
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