'Y2K: It's Closer Than You Think
By Michael S. Hyatt
October 12, 1998
Nine Millennial Milestones That Will Signal the Chaos to Come
Many people think that the disruptions stemming from unresolved
Y2K problems will begin suddenly at midnight on January 1,
2000. Not so. The technological problems will begin in early
1999 and continue through at least February 2000. This will result
in a gradual unraveling as things begin "coming apart at the
seams."
There are at least nine millennial milestones that you need to
watch for:
Milestone #1: January 1, 1999. On this date, testing is scheduled to begin for
systems all over the world. As you have no doubt heard, many infrastructure
providers and businesses have promised that their systems will be ready for testing
on this date. According to the Gartner Group, 80 percent of the companies that
have announced they will begin testing on this date will miss it. The travel industry
will also get its first live test as it begins accepting reservations for dates into the
next century. In addition, some business planning systems will fail as they begin
processing dates beyond Y2K. To add insult to injury, the European Common
Currency system goes online. This will create its own level of chaos and continued
drain on Information Technology resources that could be used on the Year 2000
computer problem. As these problems and others begin to surface, you can expect
the media to begin covering Y2K and a significantly more intense level.
Milestone #2: April 1, 1999. On this date, Canada, Japan, and the State of New
York begin their fiscal year. This will, of course, include dates beyond Y2K. As a
result, planning systems, especially budgets that have not been repaired will fail as
they attempt to process Y2K dates. Since New York City is the media capitol of the
world, problems there will grab headlines worldwide. Problems in Japan will remind
everyone again of how interconnected our world is. The Japanese will also be
forced to admit that there systems might not make it. I expect the stock market to
react and begin (or continue) its downward spiral. Public confidence will continue to
wane and the number of Y2K optimists will continue to dwindle.
Milestone #3: July 1, 1999. On this date, forty-four U.S. states begin their fiscal
years. The problems that began in New York will now spread exponentially across
the country and around the world. The public will feel the global and pervasive
nature of the Y2K Problem for the first time. This will be further exacerbated by the
fact that many states have not had the resources to adequately address their
Millennium Bug problems. Consequently, the failures will be real and widespread.
We will begin seeing the public begin to panic - particularly where there has not
been strong local leadership.
Milestone #4: August 22, 1999. On this date, the Global Positioning Satellite
(GPS) technology will fail in receivers that are not upgraded or replaced. The GPS
system consists of twenty-four satellites that transmit signals to earth, which are in
turn picked up by electronic receivers to determine a vehicle's exact location and
velocity. They are installed in both military and civilian vehicles and devices,
including fighters, bombers, commercial and private airplanes, helicopters, trains,
ships, submarines, tanks, jeeps, missiles and other "smart" weapons, police cars
and ambulances, and some newer-model cars. Unfortunately, this system has a
date-related error in its receiver technology. There are some 10 million of these
receivers installed throughout the world. Those that are not upgraded will produce
inaccurate data that could prove to be dangerous and even life threatening. While
not specifically a Y2K related problem, this computer glitch will add to the chaos
and confusion.
Milestone #5: September 9, 1999. On this date, many computers will encounter
the infamous "99" problem. For decades programmers designated the end of a file
or the termination of a program by entering a series of four nines in a row (i.e.,
"9999") in a date field. Much like the Year 2000 Problem, programmers thought that
the programs they were writing would surely be replaced before they actually
encountered this problem. Unfortunately, they underestimated the longevity their
programs would enjoy. This code, like the Millennium Bug, is embedded in millions
of computer programs throughout the world. Unless it is tracked down and
removed, these programs will abruptly terminate - often with unexpected results.
Milestone #6: October 1, 1999. On this date, the federal government will begin its
fiscal year. According to the most recent estimates by the House Subcommittee on
Government Information Management and Technology, thirteen out of twenty-four
key federal government agencies will not make the deadline. Computer systems
operated by the Defense, Transportation, Treasury, and Medicare Departments,
among others, will begin malfunctioning. All the smoke and mirrors will be gone.
The government - and the administration - will be forced to admit the truth. There will
be no place to hide. The naked truth will be evident to all.
Milestone #7: January 1, 2000. On this date, all non-compliant computer systems
will fail or generate corrupt data, propagating it across systems and bringing down
many computers that are compliant. The world will watch with anticipation as the
systems fail, one time zone at a time. How big will it be? No one really knows. It
depends on how many systems are repaired between now and January 1, 2000.
Perhaps more importantly, it also depends on what kind of contingency plans we
have in place in order to mitigate the damage.
Milestone #8: January 4, 2000. On this date, the first business day of the new
year begins. Many businesses, utility companies, and government agencies will not
open - many will not be able to open. Many that do open will be swamped with
customer complaints. Chaos and pandemonium will reign.
Milestone #9: February 29, 2000. On this date, leap day occurs. Most people
assume that every fourth year is a leap year. However, every fourth
turn-of-the-century is a leap year, too. The year 1900 was not a leap year; the year
2000 is. Therefore, if the computer doesn't account for the fact that 2000 will, in fact,
have a February 29, then all kinds of calculations will be off, including billing cycles.
Unfortunately, many programmers were unaware of this rule, and their programs will
stumble over this date, increasing the chaos.
The bottom line is that you have much less time to prepare than you think. As these
dates come and go, the chaos will increase, increasing public awareness and,
possibly, even public panic. Supplies will become more scarce and prices will
escalate. You cannot afford to wait. You must begin making contingency plans now,
before things start unraveling.
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