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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (7079)	10/13/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: kormac	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Stitch, I believe that it was exactly because of the development of the theory of chaos that econometricians stopped getting Nobel prices. The theory of chaos, by the way is nothing new. Atmospheric flows and the water flow through your faucet, when the flow rate is fast enough, have been known to be chaotic solutions to the differential equations that govern these flows, for over hundred years now. What is new is that much much simpler equations also have chaotic solutions. In any case I am very happy that this is now common knowledge so that the hubris of man's supposed understanding how to model mathematically economics, and other social sciences is exposed. Man has made a grave mistake in believing that the methods that are so powerful in physical sciences can be taken over to social sciences and that they work. Indeed, the historical approach is much better, as it incorporates subtleties that long and continuous thought can only bring. Seppo

To: Stitch who wrote (7079)	10/14/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 9980

I think that here in the Financial Times article on Japanese banks you have a good example.... of nothing less than the national psyche of the nation in question and of a Kabuki like shadow play. How many tens of thousands of words have been on this subject? Here is the reality kids. "...Banks are likely to be unwilling to apply for an injection of public funds, partly because of the stigma of having to ask for state support and partly because of the strict conditions on management responsibility attached to an application. Also, recapitalising banks is not expected to lead to an immediate relaxation of the credit squeeze. "Will a bank which has been able to strengthen its capital adequacy [as a result of injecting public funds] increase lending in this economic environment? No," said one banker. "In six months' time, nothing will have changed and the bashing of banks will intensify." Concerns that the banks will be reluctant to apply for public funds led Hiromu Nonaka, chief cabinet secretary, to suggest: "The government should retain the option of forcibly injecting public funds into banks at its own discretion." Satoru Kishi, head of the Bankers Federation and of the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, said: "It is possible that we will not apply for [public money]", as details of the conditions for receiving public funds were still unclear. Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's vice-minister for international affairs, yesterday warned the global economy was facing a credit crunch following Russia's default in August and problems encountered by hedge funds". My best to you all, Clark